Today's Market Updates

General Market Overview

Geopolitical risks and inflation data that are expected to come in hotter, play a role in stock market rebounds and fall in the US. It was mentioned that the FED delays to cut will prove hard for the small caps, at least in the short term. Indexes would be more challenged as the cut cycle of the FED remains unsure. 

The macro perspective is turning out great as the more GDP-sensitive stocks may see an increase. These dont have as much leverage or financing risks. 

Low-risk positions that investors can look into, according to investors are Energy, Industrials, Materials, and the commodity complex. Go for Active investments rather than passive ones.

Currently, we are also experiencing a fall in GOLD and Crude Oil as we see tensions in the Middle East somewhat ease up, allowing investors to enter the market. However, it is still of concern to the majority as the possibility of rising conflict still exists. This proves true for Japan as concerns for potential escalations may push stocks up. Nikkei futures closed at +1.48% yesterday.

GOLD -After successfully breaking through the range, the price is now testing the structure at 2333.715. We may see price testing 2319.398 as the possibility of Gold falling further exists with de-escalating tensions in the Middle East. Failure to test the said structure may pull the price back toward the 2354.470 structure. However, we still see this bullish and call the drop a retracement, and an opportunity to look into higher positions.

SILVER - Silver has retraced into the ideal zone at 27.095 and 26.963 after breaking through the range. A drop further toward the anchor point of the range stays true with the retracement of price. We want to see a drop below 27.793 before calling a shift in momentum and a possibility of dropping further.

DXY - The DXY has formed higher lows as it climbed toward 106.394 and failed to break it. Currently, the price is testing the 106.111 structure. A break below this may call for a retest of 105.840. 

GBPUSD -GBP has broken through the structure at 1.23720. The price now edges closer to the same structure to possibly test it again and see if it resists price. However, we can see a possibility for the price to test the 4h structure at 1.22714. A return into the structure may call for a retest at 1.24268.

AUDUSD -After the price broke through the 0.64086, it returned as quickly back into the structure as the price now seemingly wants to go into 0.64801 as we witness the formation of the W pattern in the 4h timeframe.

NZDUSD -The creation of the W pattern in the NZD correlates with the AUD as we see the price edging closer the 0.59288. A successful break will call a test into the 0.59400. However, as the price currently stands, it is in between the range of 0.59288 and 0.58984.

EURUSD -The formation of the W pattern in the 4h for the EUR is evident as we see the price supported by 1.06202. A successful break beyond 1.06660 may call for a test of structure toward 1.06988. The strengthening of the EUR is also called on the COT. However, it is important to note that the price is currently in the structure between 1.06660 and 1.06202 and may just consolidate before falling further. 

USDJPY - The further weakening of the JPY was called by COT reports as we witnessed the break over the structure at 154.771. This small rise may be an opportunity for the market to fill up orders before an aggressive rise. We will not call this a safe break as the increased momentum is minuscule at most, but the capacity of this rise to bring the price up further is not disregarded. 

USDCHF - CHF weakness is called by COT as we see the price stagnate between 0.914734 and 0.91036. As long as it remains within and respects the channel, we still view this to be bullish. The constant rise of the price from the test of the bottom range of the channel may also showcase a potential rise further, albeit a weak momentum.

USDCAD - We can see the formation of the SHS completed as the price drops below 1.37035. We may see the price drop further and test the 1.36612 as this fall has shifted the momentum of the price. We may see CAD gain strength against the dollar further as risk appetite improves and after domestic data showed new home prices stabilizing in March. However, it is still important to note that investors still view a weaker CAD as proven by COT reports.