Today's Economic Indicator

Reminder

Sudden shifts may occur as major events take place. Take note of trading positions and risk management as we navigate through difficult market conditions.

GOLD -GOLD is still stuck between the range of two supply and demand zones. We can see the price resisted by 2431.705 and 2295.536. However, all in all, the price rose from last quarters trading. We can see a clear uptrend. While we may find a potential fall, our expectation is a bullish run for the GOLD.

SILVER - Prices showed growth after the first quarters trading. The second quarter reached 29.900 and traded above it for a while before settling the price at 29.018. We do expect further growth with Silver prices as we can see a clear upward trend happening on the charts. However, we do expect resistance at 29.900 as this is the upper boundary of the monthly range as seen on the chart. We may find Silver prices testing the anchor point at between 26.00 and 25.00.

DXY - The dollar index showed growth after last quarter‘s trading, showing sufficient demand and growth for the dollar. However, the trend is currently stagnating and may signal the highest peak of this year’s price as the rate cut expectation of September creeps closer. This coming quarter may spell weakness for the dollar. We lean toward selling the dollar.

GBPUSD -The pound showed very little change from last quarters open and close price. Prices stay consolidated between the range of 1.27938 and 1.25019. However, prices are currently at the anchor point of the range at 1.26487. We are waiting for further price movements. However, the U.K. is looking to cut rates and is only being held up by the BOE delaying rate cuts in hopes of further data releases to ensure inflation is on track. With that in mind, we may not see massive changes in price as both countries consider rate cuts within the coming quarter.

AUDUSD -The Aussie dollar showed growth from last month‘s close. We can see the market showing an upward run happening. However, this is not trusted until the price breaks above 0.67142. We wait for further price movements. However, we do see analysts, including Bloomberg, who do not call for rate cuts happening this year until late 2025. Meaning, that the market conditions may prove fruitful for the Aussie Dollar when the FED calls for a cut this quarter. With that in mind, we may have seen the bottom of this year’s trading session.

NZDUSD - Similar to the Aussie dollar, the New Zealand dollar gained a bit. We can see the price on 0.60847 and we expect further growth. Similar to Aussie Dollar rate cut expectations, some analysts do not see rate cuts until late 2025 which may prove fruitful for the NZD. With that said, we may have seen the bottom for this pair during this year's trading session.

EURUSD -The ECB has cut rates which caused the weakness in their currency during the second quarter. The ECB President Christine Lagarde did mention that they will be slow to implement additional rate cuts, stating that the bank will take a “data-dependent, meeting-by-meeting” approach. Some economists, like Karsten Junius from J. Safra Sarasin, forecast the ECB will cut rates further in September, October, and December 2024 towards a level of 3.0% by year-end. However, the article notes the market is currently pricing in a less aggressive ECB rate cut cycle, with rates expected to end 2024 at 3.25% compared to 4.84% for the U.S. Federal Reserve. With this in mind, the lack of assurance may prove difficult for the currency and may show further weakness against other currencies.

USDJPY -USDJPY continues to tick upward, showing growth in the 2nd quarter despite intervention last May after the price reached the 160 level. With that said, many fear the current pricing of the market as intervention from the BoJ may come again to drop prices as they practice rate hikes to boost their economy and spur growth. While their decision is showing weakness and doubt in their currency as they thread new territories, others are keeping a close eye on the currency to see how it will turn out for the country. We suspect that analysts and traders are waiting for GDP results after the hikes are implemented to see how the current monetary decisions are contributing to the economy.

USDCHF - USDCHF has fallen after the SNB reduced its key interest rate by 0.25 percentage points to 1.25% on June 20, 2024. This was the second rate cut by the SNB in 2024, following an earlier 0.25 percentage point reduction in March 2024. There is uncertainty with SNB if they are to cut rates further within the coming quarters but, some of the economists did mention that it is unlikely that it will happen. With that said, we continue to wait for further data that may navigate us through and give us a clue if SNB is on track for another rate cut this September and December. With that in mind, we anticipate further volatility dependent on news for this currency. However, we may find prices dropping further as USD comes close to rate-cut expectations.

USDCAD -The CAD stagnated for most of the trading months during the second quarter but, it did show weakness against the dollar as prices close higher than the first quarters close. However, the price difference is not that vast. The majority of the analysts and economists call for another rate cut this coming quarter. With that said, we are waiting for further confirmation and may see a consolidation in price.

COT Reports Analysis

CAD - Strong (1/5)

CHF - Weak (2/5)

GBP - Strong (2/5)

JPY - Weak (5/5)

EUR - Weak (5/5)

AUD - Strong (3/5)

NZD - Strong (5/5)

USD - Strong (5/5)

GOLD - Strong (3/5)

Silver - Weak (2/5)