FED meeting minutes strongly hint at a rate cut in September; US dollar index falls to new low this year!

Hot spot tracking

• The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics revised down the employment growth in the year ending in March by 818,000, an average monthly decrease of about 68,000, the largest downward revision since 2009. The substantial downward revision of employment data re-emphasized the severity and necessity of the U.S. employment problem, paving the way for a rate hike in September. Bearish for the U.S. dollar.

• The U.S. EIA crude oil inventory recorded a decrease of 4.649 million barrels in the week ending August 16, a larger-than-expected decline. Strategic petroleum reserve inventories were the highest since the week ending December 16, 2022; commercial crude oil inventories were the lowest since the week ending January 26, 2024. The decline in crude oil inventories is bullish for crude oil.

• The war may continue, which is bullish for crude oil and gold.

Product Hot Comment

• Forex

  Product	Yesterday's Change	Yesterday's Close	Today's Open
  EUR/USD	▲0.19%	1.11495	1.11479
  GBP/USD	▲0.44%	1.30906	1.30918
  AUD/USD	▼-0.01%	0.67466	0.67453
  USD/JPY	▲0.10%	145.275	145.175
  GBP/CAD	▲0.24%	1.77933	1.7791
  NZD/CAD	▼-0.16%	0.83668	0.83654

  📝 Review:On Wednesday, the US dollar index fell for the fourth consecutive trading day. It once broke through the 101 mark during the session, hitting a new low for the year, and finally closed down 0.191% at 101.17. The US Treasury yield continued to fall, with the benchmark 10-year US Treasury yield closing at 3.805%; the two-year US Treasury yield finally closed at 3.943%.

  🕵️ Operation suggestion:

  USD/JPY 145.259  Sell  Target Price  143.408

  
  

• Gold

  Product	Yesterday's Change	Yesterday's Close	Today's Open
  Gold	▼-0.06%	2512.34	2512.07
  Silver	▲0.56%	29.585	29.577

  📝 Review:Spot gold generally fell first and then rose, reaching a daily low of 2493.78. After the release of the Federal Reserve meeting minutes, it turned to rise, and finally closed down 0.06% at $2512.41 per ounce. Spot silver fluctuated higher and finally closed up 0.57% at $29.6 per ounce.

  🕵️ Operation suggestion:

  Gold 2512.19  Buy  Target Price  2531.64

  
  

• Crude Oil

  Product	Yesterday's Change	Yesterday's Close	Today's Open
  WTI Crude Oil	▼-1.61%	71.801	71.812
  Brent Crude Oil	▼-1.34%	75.626	75.634

  📝 Review:Although the decline in U.S. EIA crude oil inventories exceeded expectations, the trend-tracking commodity trading advisors (CTAs) are still intensifying the sell-off. International oil prices fell to a six-month low. WTI crude oil fell below the 72 mark and eventually closed down 1.62% at $71.8 per barrel; Brent crude oil eventually closed down 1.33% at $75.63 per barrel.

  🕵️ Operation suggestion:

  WTI Crude Oil 71.720  Buy  Target Price  72.783

  
  

• Indice

  Product	Yesterday's Change	Yesterday's Close	Today's Open
  Nasdaq 100	▲0.59%	19826.85	19847.15
  Dow Jones	▲0.10%	40902.5	40930.1
  S&P 500	▲0.37%	5618.35	5622.15
  	▼0.00%	17559.3	17559.3
  US Dollar Index	▼-0.27%	100.88	100.92

  📝 Review:The three major U.S. stock indexes rebounded collectively, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average closing up 0.13%, the S&P 500 up 0.42%, and the Nasdaq up 0.57%. Nvidia (NVDA.O) rose nearly 1%, while Apple (AAPL.O) fell slightly. The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index closed up 2.4%, Alibaba (BABA.N) rose 3%, Xpeng Motors (XPEV.N) and Li Auto (LI.O) rose by around 4%, and JD.com (JD.O) fell 4.1%.

  🕵️ Operation suggestion:

  Nasdaq 100 19843.550  Buy  Target Price  20105.984

  
  

• Crypto

  Product	Yesterday's Change	Yesterday's Close	Today's Open
  BitCoin	▲3.19%	61179.8	61228.7
  Ethereum	▲1.75%	2628.2	2636.1
  Dogecoin	▲3.34%	0.10666	0.10649

  📝 Review:Judging from the overall market trend, bulls have a slight advantage in the Bitcoin market. At press time, the Bitcoin price is below 59,500 points. Yesterday, the daily candlestick chart showed that the price broke through the 233-day moving average, but failed to stabilize above the line at the close. Tonight, we need to pay close attention to whether the daily candlestick can stabilize above the 233-day moving average, that is, above 60,040 points, at the close of the early morning.

  🕵️ Operation suggestion:

  BitCoin 61036.0  Buy  Target Price  63682.3