What's Moving Markets Today

Market Overview

Fed futures traders have priced in 75 bps in rate cuts by the end of this year and nearly 200 bps in cuts by December 2025, which would bring the Fed's policy rate to 2.75% by the end of 2025, according to the CME FedWatch tool. The U.S. Treasury yield curve has steepened following the Fed's rate cut, with investors adding to bets for another sizable rate cut after Fed Governor Christopher Waller expressed concerns that inflation may soon fall substantially below the central bank’s 2% target. Meanwhile, a majority of economists polled by Reuters expect two more 25 bps rate cuts at the Fed’s final two meetings this year.

Market Analysis

GOLD - GOLD has filled in last week’s wick, as expected. Currently, we're watching for further movement to determine where the peak will form before the next upward wave. With momentum still strong for GOLD and expectations for more rate cuts, the market shows no signs of slowing down. We anticipate a continuation above the supply and demand (S&D) zone just below 2640.000, although profit-taking may cause a temporary dip during the Asian session.

SILVER - SILVER remains in consolidation between 31.472 and 30.668. There is potential for continued upward movement as metals are generally viewed as safer assets. We expect traders to flock to this market alongside GOLD.

DXY - The U.S. dollar is consolidating and bounced off an S&D structure around 100.600. It is now looking to test resistance at 100.900. We are waiting for a clearer breakout to determine the direction, but short-term buying seems likely.

GBPUSD - The Pound has remained consolidated between two zones after last week’s trading. While we expect further buying, there is also potential for selling as the dollar is anticipated to strengthen. We’ll need further confirmation and breakouts to clarify direction.

AUDUSD - The Aussie dollar has stagnated between 0.68200 and 0.67985. While we see potential for upward movement as structure continues to support buying, profit-taking and extended consolidation suggest that a potential break below could occur before another rise.

NZDUSD - Similar to the Aussie Dollar, the Kiwi shows potential for buying, though short-term selling and profit-taking may occur first. We await further market developments to confirm direction for the week.

EURUSD - The Euro remains above 1.11386 and is close to filling last week's wick. There's potential for further buying, as downside rejection is evident, but strong resistance at the highs persists. We’ll monitor price action to confirm market direction.

USDJPY - Yen weakness continues after the BOJ announced no rush to tighten policies further. We expect buying to continue, though with today being a holiday in Japan, there will likely be less trading during the Asian session.

USDCHF - The Swiss Franc (CHF) showed weakness again after last week’s trading, with prices hovering above key S&D zones. We expect continued upward movement toward 0.85541 and further buying pressure ahead of the November rate cut, but we await additional confirmations before entering trades.

USDCAD - The Canadian dollar (Loonie) remains in consolidation and shows no clear market direction after filling last week’s wick. We’re watching for a clearer breakout in market structure before making further decisions.