DBG Markets: Market Report for Nov 04, 2024

Reminder: You may experience some lag or delays in placing orders, or you may find that some brokers will have your orders placed differently from your Bid and Ask lines. This will be due to increased volatility and risk for investors in the coming days as the elections will impact the market aggressively.

Market Overview

Major data releases are expected this week, starting with the RBA Rate Statement and U.S. ISM Services PMI, alongside the Presidential Elections. Employment data for the Kiwi is due Wednesday, followed by the Pound‘s Monetary Policy Reports and U.S. Unemployment Claims on Thursday. Friday will feature the FED’s rate cut announcement and CAD employment reports. In other developments, net shorts on U.S. Treasury two-year note futures, indicating bets on price declines from both leveraged funds and non-commercial accounts, soared to record peaks last week, according to Fridays Commodity Futures Trading Commission data. The US10Y yield rose to 4.386% as of Saturday at 1 AM. US30 and US500 indices are trending lower ahead of the elections. Additionally, further engagement in both Ukraine and West Asia will affect price strength and market expectations for future movements. We continue to watch recent developments closely, as these will directly impact Oil and Metals movements, as well as upcoming rate cut expectations.

GOLD - Gold momentum maintains a bullish outlook as both the RSI and MACD show evidence of a continued rise. Price action also suggests a failure to reach the previous swing low, indicating a heightened expectation for a bullish run. Additionally, uncertainty over elections and a potential ceasefire in West Asia bolsters GOLDs investment growth potential.

SILVER - Silver breached its previous swing low, switching momentum from Buying to Selling. Current chart conditions indicate a potential shift in momentum, with RSI and MACD suggesting a bullish run. Price also hovers at a key support level of 32.518, aligning with the bullish outlook supported by fundamental factors.

DXY - The DOLLAR fell ahead of the elections and FEDs rate cut announcements, breaking through its previous swing low and aligning with bearish momentum as shown by the MACD and RSI. We anticipate further selling to persist as markets opened with a gap and 10-Year Yields continue to rise.

GBPUSD - The Pound rebounded following a sudden gap due to Dollar weakness, though price action has yet to confirm a momentum shift. The MACD and RSI, however, signal a recent rise after crossing at oversold levels. If the price surpasses the previous swing high and breaks above 1.29966, a more bullish trend could unfold, especially with the upcoming FED rate cut announcement.

AUDUSD - Aussie Dollar (AUD) shifted to bullish momentum after breaking the previous swing high. MACD cross, alongside RSI divergence, suggests continued bullish potential following the Dollar's gap weakness. However, a correction may occur before any substantial rise due to gaps in order placement. Nonetheless, current price movement suggests increased buying potential.

NZDUSD - Kiwi (NZD) has yet to breach its previous swing high. MACD cross upward and RSI show divergence favoring a buy movement, although the recent gap suggests a fill-in order similar to the AUD. Current price action does not yet indicate a market shift, as the previous swing high has yet to be broken.

EURUSD - Euro (EUR) followed expected trends with continued buying momentum driven by diminished rate-cut expectations for the December ECB meeting. RSI divergence and MACDs recent cross further support this bullish momentum.

USDJPY - Yen (JPY) regained strength amid Dollar weakness, with the MACD crossing and RSI divergence indicating recovery. Current market conditions suggest the dollar‘s short-term selling will continue until Friday’s announcements.

USDCHF - Franc (CHF) shows sustained consolidation, as anticipated. Recent price moves suggest a continuation to the downside, supported by the RSI and MACD, although confirmation awaits a break below the previous swing low.

USDCAD - CAD followed previous expectations in recent trading. Market opened with bearish momentum, evidenced by the MACD cross and RSI divergence. As long as the price remains above the prior swing low, buying momentum may persist. This is reinforced by fundamentals, with oil prices steady amid rising tensions in West Asia.