Data to Watch This Week

WikiFX

| 2025-01-13 17:45

Abstract：Last week, U.S. employment data significantly exceeded expectations, further solidifying market expectations that the Federal Reserve will not be making aggressive interest rate cuts. This week, the focus shifts to important economic data and the start of earnings season.

On Friday, the U.S. stock market faced a sharp decline, with the three major indexes dropping around 2% for the week. Some individual stocks, such as Nvidia and Tesla, saw declines of more than 4%. The U.S. dollar strengthened, pushing the pound to a 14-month low, while U.S. Treasury yields hit a one-year high.

The non-farm payroll report last week once again sent shockwaves through the market. The strength of the U.S. labor market has led investors to believe that the Federal Reserve will maintain a relatively cautious monetary policy, significantly reducing the likelihood of any immediate rate cuts in the short term.

U.S. CPI and PPI Inflation Data

The main event this week will be the release of the U.S. CPI and PPI inflation data on January 15. According to market expectations, the December CPI is likely to show a month-over-month increase of 0.3%, with the year-over-year rate rising to 2.9%. Core CPI, excluding volatile energy and food components, is expected to continue growing at 3.3% year-over-year, with a potential slowdown to 0.2% month-over-month.

If these expectations hold true, it would further indicate that while the U.S. economy is facing some inflationary pressures, the strong labor market may help inflation cool slightly by the end of 2024. Analysts believe this backdrop will increase the likelihood of the Federal Reserve maintaining its accommodative policy, although the market also anticipates that inflation could stabilize by year-end. Future Fed policy will continue to be influenced by these two data points, particularly in terms of adjusting expectations for rate cuts.

This week, the market will face a series of crucial data releases and events. From U.S. CPI and PPI inflation data to the start of the U.S. earnings season and significant developments in global technology and politics, these factors will have a significant impact on market sentiment and future economic expectations. Investors need to closely monitor how these data and events might influence the market, especially with respect to Federal Reserve policy and inflation trends.

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