DBG Markets: Market Report for Feb 11, 2025

Market Analysis

GOLD - Gold prices continue to rise, marking another new high after yesterday‘s session. This surge is largely driven by Trump’s decision to raise tariffs on steel and aluminum imports to a flat 25% without exceptions or exemptions. The move aims to support struggling industries but heightens the risk of a multi-front trade war. Gold is expected to sustain its upward momentum in the coming days. The MACD reflects increased bullish momentum, albeit with declining volume, while the RSI supports this bullish trend. Growth is anticipated to persist as markets brace for the possibility of inflationary pressures, which reduce the likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate cut. According to the CME FEDWATCH Tool, there is currently a 93.5% chance the Fed will hold rates steady in March.

SILVER - Silver prices remain consolidated, overshadowed by the appeal of both Gold and the US Dollar. Despite record highs in Gold, Silver is yet to reach analysts' projected peaks and is likely to remain subdued until Gold approaches overvalued levels. The MACD and RSI for Silver lack definitive directional signals, while the EMA200 supports an overall bullish structure. A significant move is awaited to clarify market direction.

DXY - The US Dollar, while maintaining low levels, is expected to rise in response to the tariffs. Trump‘s announcement of reciprocal tariffs on other countries has heightened fears of a global trade war, which could stoke inflation and limit the Federal Reserve's ability to cut interest rates further. Market participants are also closely monitoring Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s upcoming testimony before Congress for insights into the future path of interest rates. While the overall price action for the Dollar is yet to turn bullish, the EMA200 supports current price movements, and further confirmations are needed for a more decisive technical outlook. The RSI has approached overbought levels but has not yet signaled a bullish sentiment.

GBPUSD - The pound has shifted to a bearish momentum, breaking below the 1.23720 mark. The MACD shows strengthening downward momentum and volume, while the RSI supports the bearish trend. The EMA200 has established itself as a resistance level. The UK is likely to face economic repercussions if the tariffs persist, reinforcing a bearish outlook supported by both technical and fundamental indicators.

AUDUSD - The Australian Dollar remains consolidated with no significant changes. It awaits further clarity from Fed Chair Powells remarks to determine its next move.

NZDUSD - The New Zealand Dollar shows no dramatic movements but exhibits stronger bearish conviction compared to the Aussie. Selling momentum is building, with the RSI reflecting exaggerated bullish levels, while the MACD confirms this sentiment. The EMA200 remains sideways, signaling a lack of clear direction.

EURUSD - The Euro continues to hold below 1.03311, with expectations of further bearish movement. However, the market remains cautious, awaiting Powells testimony for guidance. The RSI suggests exaggerated buying levels despite minimal price increases, while the MACD reflects muted volume, bolstering expectations of sustained bearish momentum.

USDJPY - The Japanese Yen is consolidating amid the tariff tensions, with the Bank of Japan anticipated to hike rates in the coming months. This contrasts with other currencies likely to experience rate cuts, lending relative strength to the Yen. The MACD and RSI maintain a bearish bias, reflecting the market's consolidated state, with the RSI previously touching oversold levels during higher lows.

USDCHF - The Swiss Franc is gaining bullish momentum, with prices aligning with the EMA200. The overall price action has shifted back to a bullish trend, and the current resistance level is expected to be broken. However, the ongoing consolidation phase introduces the possibility of a directional shift should Powells announcement alter market expectations. Both the MACD and RSI support a bullish outlook but suggest caution as markets await further developments.

USDCAD - No notable changes are observed in the Canadian Dollar, as it remains steady. Like other markets, it awaits Powells testimony to determine the next course of action.