Weak US Data Sinks Dollar, Gold Rises Amid Ceasefire Uncertainty

● Weak US Data Pressures Dollar: Initial jobless claims and Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index miss expectations, fueling economic concerns.

● Gold Gains on Safe-Haven Demand: A weaker dollar, geopolitical tensions, and trade war fears drive gold prices higher.

● Hang Seng Rally Continues: Strong corporate earnings and AI-driven optimism push Hong Kongs index higher.

Market Summary

The U.S. dollar extended its losses sharply following disappointing economic data, fueling concerns over slowing economic momentum. Initial jobless claims surged to 219K, missing expectations of 215K, while the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index also came in below forecast at 18.1. The weaker data added to growing pessimism about the U.S. economic outlook, despite Federal Reserve officials maintaining a cautious stance on rate cuts. The uncertainty surrounding Fed policy has further pressured the dollar, intensifying volatility in financial markets.

Gold prices surged as the dollar weakened, benefiting from renewed safe-haven demand. Lingering geopolitical risks, including stalled Russia-Ukraine ceasefire talks, continued to support the precious metal. Additionally, Trump‘s aggressive stance on tariffs has reignited trade war fears, further boosting gold as a hedge against economic uncertainty. With multiple risk factors weighing on investor sentiment, gold’s bullish momentum remains intact.

In Asia, the Hang Seng Index (HSI) extended its gains, attempting to break above recent highs amid renewed optimism in China‘s tech sector. Investor confidence was bolstered by President Xi Jinping’s engagement with industry leaders and the AI-driven “DeepSeek” rally. Alibaba‘s strong earnings further reinforced market sentiment, highlighting Beijing’s supportive policies aimed at stimulating economic growth.

In contrast, U.S. equities struggled, with Walmarts weaker sales guidance signaling cracks in consumer spending, adding to market concerns.

Current rate hike bets on 19th March Fed interest rate decision:

Source: CME Fedwatch Tool

0 bps (98%) VS -25 bps (2%)

Market Movements

DOLLAR_INDX, H4

The U.S. dollar extended its decline to a new low for 2025, with bearish momentum accelerating following the release of Initial Jobless Claims. The weaker-than-expected jobs data has further dented sentiment, reinforcing concerns that the U.S. labor market may be softening. Adding to the pressure, Trumps renewed tariff threats and the ballooning U.S. national debt have eroded confidence in the greenback, prompting investors to seek alternatives. With market sentiment shifting away from the dollar, further downside pressure may persist unless a stronger economic catalyst emerges.

The Dollar Index has reached a new low and broken below its support level at 106.55, suggesting a bearish bias for the index. The RSI is returning to the oversold zone, while the MACD failed to break above the zero line, suggesting that the bearish momentum is overwhelming.

Resistance level: 107.35, 108.40

Support level: 105.50, 103.70

XAU/USD, H4

Gold prices soared to a fresh all-time high above $2,950, before experiencing a slight pullback, stabilizing above $2,930. The precious metal continues to trade in an extremely bullish manner, fueled by escalating geopolitical tensions and mounting uncertainty over Trump‘s tariff threats, which could spark a trade war with key partners. Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar remains subdued, further bolstering gold’s safe-haven appeal. With investors seeking protection amid global economic uncertainty, the yellow metal is poised to extend gains as long as the dollar weakness persists.

Gold prices have recorded new highs while remaining in a higher-high price pattern, suggesting a bullish bias for gold. The momentum indicators, including the RSI and the MACD, have been edging higher, suggesting that bullish momentum is gaining.

Resistance level: 2960.00, 3007.00

Support level: 2918.70, 2875.00

GBP/USD，H4

The British Pound extends its gains as resilient UK economic data dampens expectations for aggressive Bank of England (BoE) rate cuts. Januarys hotter-than-expected inflation, coupled with accelerating wage growth and unexpected GDP expansion, has led markets to reassess the likelihood of two rate cuts this year. With the BoE meeting set for March 20, investors will closely watch upcoming retail sales and business activity data for further clarity. Persistent economic strength could reinforce a hawkish BoE stance, supporting further Pound appreciation.

GBP/USD is trading higher following the prior breakout above the previous resistance level. MACD has illustrated increasing bullish momentum, while RSI is at 68, suggesting the pair might extend its gains since the RSI stays above the midline.

Resistance level: 1.2720, 1.2800

Support level: 1.2635, 1.2515