DBG Markets: Market Report for Feb 28, 2025

Market Overview

GOLD - Gold prices have dropped significantly as expected, driven by Trump's renewed tariff commitments on Mexico, Canada, and potentially Europe. Rising trade war risks and delayed Fed rate cuts are fueling inflation concerns, maintaining a bearish outlook for gold. The MACD indicates selling volume but is nearing a crossover, hinting at a possible short-term pause in the decline. The RSI is normalizing after hitting oversold levels. Price action remains bearish, with gold staying below the previous swing low and facing resistance at the EMA200.

SILVER - SILVER is also experiencing increased selling momentum, following the drop in gold prices. The MACD reflects higher selling volume, while the RSI confirms the continuation of bearish sentiment. Price action has firmly shifted to the downside, reinforcing expectations of further declines in the coming days. The announcement of tariffs has only strengthened the bearish case, and no changes in outlook are necessary.

DXY - The US DOLLAR gained overnight after Trump‘s announcement, with investors positioning ahead of the upcoming inflation report. While the report remains significant for the Fed’s policy decisions, the tariff announcement has reduced its immediate impact, as market sentiment increasingly shifts toward expectations of prolonged rate stability. The MACD suggests continued buying strength, while the RSI shows sustained momentum. The Federal Reserve is likely to remain in a wait-and-see mode, further delaying any policy adjustments.

GBPUSD - The POUND has followed expectations, breaking below 1.26163 and the EMA200, confirming a shift in overall price action to bearish. The MACD indicates growing selling momentum, while the RSI reflects strengthening downward pressure. The potential for tariffs on European goods only adds to bearish sentiment, increasing the likelihood of further declines. Price action confirms continued selling pressure, and no changes in outlook are necessary.

AUDUSD - The AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR continues to weaken as anticipated, with price action maintaining its strong bearish structure. The MACD confirms increasing selling volume, while the RSI indicates that bearish momentum is firmly in place. There is no reason to change expectations, as the market remains in a sell-off mode. With tariffs further weighing on risk sentiment, the Australian dollar is likely to continue its decline in the coming days.

NZDUSD - The NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR is showing further weakness after breaking below 0.56859, aligning with expectations for continued selling. The MACD reflects rising selling volume, while the RSI confirms sustained bearish momentum. Price action has decisively shifted downward, and there are no signs of reversal at this stage. The market remains bearish, with further downside likely.

EURUSD - The EURO has moved exactly as anticipated, breaking below the EMA200 and the lower boundary of its consolidation range. The MACD shows an increase in selling volume, while the RSI signals rising bearish strength. Price action confirms a downward trend, reinforcing expectations of continued selling pressure. With momentum increasing, the bearish outlook remains intact.

USDJPY - The JAPANESE YEN remains stable despite the strength in the US dollar, as markets anticipate potential rate hikes from the BOJ. Prices are testing the EMA200, which is acting as resistance. The MACD remains muted, showing a lack of clear momentum in either direction, while the RSI has yet to confirm a breakout. With consumer prices in Tokyo still above the BOJs 2% target, speculation regarding future rate hikes is keeping the yen supported. A breakout from the current range is needed before a clearer market direction emerges.

USDCHF - The SWISS FRANC has lost gains after previously rising above the EMA200, with price action shifting back toward a bullish stance as it tests the 0.90054 level. If this resistance is broken, further upside momentum is expected, as reflected in the RSI. The MACD recently crossed lower, but this is likely a temporary move before the next bullish leg. Buying momentum is likely to resume, and further gains are expected.

USDCAD - The CANADIAN DOLLAR remains weak following Trumps confirmation of tariffs on Canada and Mexico. The MACD and RSI both indicate strengthening bullish momentum in USD/CAD, reinforcing expectations of continued buying pressure. As trade tensions intensify, the outlook for the Canadian dollar remains bearish, and USD strength is expected to persist.