Today's Expert Analysis

Market Overview

Trump's announcement of new tariffs—25% on Canadian and Mexican goods (effective March 4, 2025), an additional 10% on China (totaling 20%), and potential tariffs on the EU—has rattled markets. These measures aim to address drug trafficking, trade imbalances, and fentanyl exports but are causing economic uncertainty. The Canadian dollar is weakening, the US dollar is strengthening, and risk assets are declining. Reciprocal tariffs (effective April 2, 2025) and steel/aluminum tariffs (effective March 12, 2025) add to the pressure, raising inflation concerns and delaying potential Fed rate cuts.

Gold and silver face short-term downward pressure due to the dollar's strength but are expected to rise long-term as inflation and trade uncertainties grow. For now, a short-term sell strategy is recommended for both metals.

Market Analysis

GOLD - GOLD prices have moved according to our expectations, dropping significantly following Trumps renewed commitment to imposing tariffs on Mexico, Canada, and potentially Europe. The increasing likelihood of a trade war adds to inflation concerns, particularly with the Federal Reserve delaying rate cuts. With inflation expected to rise, the bearish outlook for gold remains intact. The MACD continues to show selling volume but is approaching a crossover, suggesting a potential short-term pause in the decline. Meanwhile, the RSI is normalizing after previously reaching oversold conditions. Overall price action confirms a bearish trend, as gold remains below the previous swing low and now faces resistance at the EMA200.

SILVER - Silver is facing increased selling pressure, mirroring the drop in gold prices. The MACD shows higher selling volume, and the RSI confirms ongoing bearish sentiment. Price action has turned firmly downward, signaling further declines ahead. Tariff announcements have reinforced the bearish outlook, and no changes to the current expectations are needed.

DXY - The US dollar strengthened overnight following Trumps tariff announcement, as investors adjusted positions ahead of the inflation report. While the report is still important for Fed policy, the tariff news has diminished its immediate impact, with markets now expecting prolonged rate stability. The MACD indicates ongoing buying strength, and the RSI reflects sustained momentum. The Fed is likely to stay in a wait-and-see approach, further delaying any policy changes.

GBPUSD - The Pound has broken below 1.26163 and the EMA200, confirming a bearish shift. The MACD shows growing selling momentum, and the RSI reflects increasing downward pressure. Potential tariffs on European goods add to the bearish outlook, with further declines likely. No changes in the bearish outlook are needed.

AUDUSD - The Australian Dollar continues to weaken as expected, maintaining a strong bearish structure. The MACD confirms rising selling volume, and the RSI supports sustained bearish momentum. Tariffs and risk-off sentiment are likely to drive further declines, keeping the sell-off trend intact.

NZDUSD - The NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR is showing further weakness after breaking below 0.56859, aligning with expectations for continued selling. The MACD reflects rising selling volume, while the RSI confirms sustained bearish momentum. Price action has decisively shifted downward, and there are no signs of reversal at this stage. The market remains bearish, with further downside likely.

EURUSD - The EURO has moved exactly as anticipated, breaking below the EMA200 and the lower boundary of its consolidation range. The MACD shows an increase in selling volume, while the RSI signals rising bearish strength. Price action confirms a downward trend, reinforcing expectations of continued selling pressure. With momentum increasing, the bearish outlook remains intact.

USDJPY - The Japanese Yen remains stable despite the US dollar's strength, supported by speculation of potential BOJ rate hikes amid Tokyo's consumer prices staying above the 2% target. Prices are testing the EMA200 as resistance, with the MACD showing neutral momentum and the RSI lacking breakout confirmation. A clear breakout from the current range is needed to determine the next market direction.

USDCHF - The SWISS FRANC has lost gains after previously rising above the EMA200, with price action shifting back toward a bullish stance as it tests the 0.90054 level. If this resistance is broken, further upside momentum is expected, as reflected in the RSI. The MACD recently crossed lower, but this is likely a temporary move before the next bullish leg. Buying momentum is likely to resume, and further gains are expected.

USDCAD - The CANADIAN DOLLAR remains weak following Trumps confirmation of tariffs on Canada and Mexico. The MACD and RSI both indicate strengthening bullish momentum in USD/CAD, reinforcing expectations of continued buying pressure. As trade tensions intensify, the outlook for the Canadian dollar remains bearish, and USD strength is expected to persist.