Key Economic Indicators: What to Watch Today

Market Analysis

GOLD - Gold prices are climbing despite the newly imposed tariffs on Canada, Mexico. Fears of an escalating trade war are dampening the dollars strength, even as inflationary pressures rise. While tariffs typically boost domestic inflation, the broader economic strain on U.S. trade could do more harm than good, adding to uncertainty in the markets. Given these developments, gold remains poised for further appreciation. While the MACD has crossed lower, hinting at possible downside, the RSI is already signaling oversold levels, suggesting that selling may be exhausted. A retest of the lower zone is possible, but with the EMA200 acting as strong support, gold appears set for continued bullish momentum.

SILVER - Silver prices are also gaining traction as the dollar faces heightened risk and uncertainty. With gold expected to push higher, silver could benefit from increased demand once gold becomes overbought. The MACD reflects muted selling volume, signaling the potential for an imminent stronger buy, while the RSI remains in consolidation, failing to recognize the slow price rise as a decisive bullish move. A break above the EMA200 could confirm further upside.

DXY - The dollar has suffered a steep decline, dropping below 106.111 and fully shifting price action back to bearish momentum. Although the MACD is approaching a bullish crossover, this move likely indicates only a minor correction. The RSI, already calling overbought levels, suggests that the broader trend remains downward, with more selling likely ahead.

GBPUSD - The pound is seeing renewed buying momentum after bouncing off 1.25740, contrary to expectations for a sell continuation. The MACD is consolidating, reflecting the high price levels, while the RSI is normalizing, suggesting strong momentum for further upside. As a result, we are looking for additional buying opportunities. However, if Trump announces plans for tariffs on Europe, we could see sudden weakness in the pound.

AUDUSD - The Australian dollar remains in consolidation, extending its lower boundary but bouncing off it, defying earlier expectations of strong selling momentum. The MACD is picking up buying volume, with the RSI also reflecting increased strength as it remains subdued despite testing the EMA200 and the upper boundary. While it is still too early to call a full trend reversal, we are closely monitoring the pair. Much of its movement stems from dollar weakness rather than internal strength.

NZDUSD - The Kiwi is mirroring the Aussie, consolidating within its range. Despite an earlier break below, the price rebounded and is now testing the upper boundary and the EMA200. The MACD is approaching a crossover after muted volume, while the RSI suggests buying strength remains despite price fluctuations. Like the Aussie, the Kiwi has yet to fully shift its momentum, but we remain vigilant for potential developments.

EURUSD - The euro has surged following the dollar‘s weakness, taking advantage of the shift to resume buying momentum. The MACD is strengthening, and the RSI reflects increasing bullish momentum. This rally, contrary to earlier expectations, suggests that concerns about the U.S. economy’s future trajectory are fueling demand for the euro. We continue to seek bullish opportunities in this market.

USDJPY - The yen is consolidating while extending its range. After reaching new lows, it is now retesting the EMA200. The MACD is gaining bullish volume, but the RSI is already in overbought territory, signaling a potential end to the recent uptrend. We maintain our neutral stance, waiting for a clearer breakout or price movement before making a decisive call.

USDCHF - The franc is regaining strength as investors seek stability amid rising unpredictability in global markets. This renewed demand has shifted overall price action back to selling. The RSI is overbought at current levels, while the MACD has crossed higher, indicating potential for more upside. However, with trade war tensions escalating, there is still room for prices to move lower, warranting cautious monitoring.

USDCAD - The CAD remains in consolidation at elevated levels. Both the MACD and RSI confirm this stagnation, reflecting a market waiting for direction. Despite the dollar‘s sharp drop, CAD weakness persists, explaining the market’s lack of response. We continue to seek bullish opportunities, especially as the loonie remains vulnerable compared to other currencies.