Ultima Markets | EURUSD Analysis: 13 days to go, time to focus on the shorts

Fundamental Analysis of EURUSD

EURUSD Key Takeaways

• The euro faces a short-term sell-off: US reciprocal tariffs are coming, and Trump reiterated in his speech to a joint session of Congress in March that reciprocal tariffs will be imposed on April 2. Risk aversion will gradually heat up, and there is a probability of exiting the euro‘s long positions in the short term.

• The euro is still bullish in the medium and long term: From a fundamental point of view, the Fed’s May rate cut pricing has not yet been fully factored in. The German Bundestags passage of a 500 billion euro fiscal spending bill will effectively stimulate the recovery of the EU economy, and the euro has appreciation momentum.

Technical Analysis of EURUSD Daily and Hourly Charts

EURUSD Daily Chart Insights

(EURUSD Daily Price Chart, Source: Ultima Markets MT4)

• Stochastic oscillator: The indicator sends a short signal in the overbought area, suggesting that short-term bulls may take profits and leave the market, and shorts may have the upper hand.

• Key support: EUR/USD fell after hitting the key support level of 1.0945. Yesterday, the exchange rate fell to the purple 13-day MA. If the exchange rate falls below the support price and yesterdays low today, the EUR/USD will clearly enter a downward adjustment trend, and the first target will be around 1.078.

EURUSD H1 Chart Analysis

(EURUSD H1 Price Chart, Source: Ultima Markets MT4)

• Stochastic oscillator: The indicator enters the overbought area, and the fast line shows signs of turning in the short term, but before a clear short signal is issued, the exchange rate will continue to rebound and rise.

• MA signal: Currently, the short-term purple 13-period MA has crossed below the green 200-period MA. Theoretically, there is a probability of mean reversion, that is, a retracement adjustment, in the short term. After the adjustment is over, pay attention to whether there is an opportunity to short the market.

Pivot Indicator Insights for EURUSD

(EURUSD M30 Price Chart, Source: Ultima Markets APP)

• According to Pivot Indicator in Ultima Markets APP, the central price of the day is established at 1.0875,

• Bullish Scenario: Bullish sentiment prevails above 1.0875, first target 1.0895, second target 1.0915;

• Bearish Outlook: In a bearish scenario below 1.0875, first target 1.0835, second target 1.0815.

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