Gold Hits Fresh High While Focus turns to PCE Today

● Gold Prices hit a fresh high in the last session after geopolitical tension deteriorated in the euro region.

● The U.S. dollar was lacklustre in the last session on the back of mixed U.S. GDP readings.

● Eyes on todays U.S. PCE and UK GDP reading.

Market Summary

Gold prices continued their bullish momentum, surging past $3,077.41 without significant retracement, marking a 7% gain in March. The rally underscores strong haven demand as geopolitical and economic uncertainties mount.

The latest escalation in Ukraine, where Russian drone strikes targeted the countrys second and third-largest cities, has heightened risk aversion. Meanwhile, European allies in Paris reaffirmed their stance on maintaining sanctions on Russia, rejecting demands for relief in ceasefire negotiations—further intensifying regional tensions.

Additionally, markets remain cautious ahead of Trumps tariff policy, set to take effect on April 2, adding to the uncertainty driving investors toward gold.

The U.S. dollar struggled for direction after mixed GDP data, with traders now shifting focus to the upcoming PCE reading, a key inflation gauge that could influence the Feds policy stance.

Meanwhile, the Pound Sterling remains one of the strongest G7 currencies, with UK GDP and Retail Sales data scheduled for release today—key drivers that could shape the currencys near-term trajectory.

Current rate hike bets on 7th May Fed interest rate decision:

Source: CME Fedwatch Tool

0 bps (86.4%) VS -25 bps (13.6%)

Market Movements

DOLLAR_INDX, H4

The US Dollar Index dipped, weighed down by escalating trade tensions. Trump‘s tariff plans have sparked backlash from Europe, Canada, China, and Mexico, all of which are threatening retaliatory measures. While the dollar typically benefits from risk-off sentiment, concerns over de-dollarization and shifting global trade alliances have limited its upside. Investors are now eyeing the upcoming US Core PCE Price Index report, a key inflation gauge that could determine the greenback’s next move.

The Dollar Index is trading lower following the prior retracement from the resistance level. However, MACD has illustrated increasing bullish momentum, while RSI is at 43, suggesting the index might experience technical correction since the RSI rebounded from oversold territory.

Resistance level: 104.55, 105.90

Support level: 103.25, 101.85

XAU/USD, H4

Gold prices soared to an all-time high as investors fled to safe-haven assets following Trump‘s surprise 25% tariff on auto imports. The move has stoked fears of trade disruptions, with economists warning of potential slowdowns in Japan, Europe, and South Korea. Additionally, uncertainty ahead of Trump’s April 2 tariff announcement, which could target 15 major US trading partners, has further fueled demand for gold.

Gold prices are trading higher following the prior breakout above the previous resistance level. MACD has illustrated increasing bullish momentum. However, RSI is at 74, suggesting the commodity might experience technical correction since the RSI entered overbought territory.

Resistance level: 3090.00, 3115.00

Support level: 3055.00, 3030.00

Crude Oil, H4

Crude oil prices remain range-bound, caught between trade war risks and tightening supply conditions. Fears of slower global growth due to Trump‘s tariffs have raised concerns over weakening oil demand. However, a larger-than-expected drop in US crude inventories and potential new sanctions on Venezuelan oil are providing some support. Traders are bracing for Trump’s April 2 tariff update, which could further impact the global demand outlook.

Oil prices are trading flat while currently testing the resistance level. However, MACD has illustrated diminishing bullish momentum, while RSI is at 57, suggesting the commodity might experience technical correction since the RSI retreated into midline.

Resistance level: 70.00, 71.20

Support level: 69.30, 68.50