Today's Top Headlines

Market Overview

Trump's new tariff policies are reshaping global trade, prompting investors to seek alternatives outside the dollar. Analysts warn of a potential recession as rising import costs drive inflation and slow economic growth. Starting April 5, a universal 10% tariff will apply to all imports, regardless of origin. Additionally, on April 9, 2025, reciprocal tariffs will target over 60 countries with trade surpluses or high tariffs on U.S. goods, including 34% on Chinese imports, 20% on EU goods, 49% on products from Cambodia, and 37% on items from Bangladesh.

The administrations goal is to reduce reliance on foreign manufacturing and protect critical supply chains. However, these measures could escalate trade wars, weaken international relations, and contribute to inflation. With existing tariffs on steel, aluminum, and Chinese imports already in place, further restrictions may disrupt global markets and impact U.S. industries. Given ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and Ukraine, uncertainty continues to rise. Whether these policies will strengthen the U.S. economy or trigger unintended consequences remains to be seen.

MARKET ANALYSIS

GOLD

GOLD prices have reached a new high, and fundamentally, there is an expectation for prices to continue rising as trade war tensions escalate. Not to mention the geopolitical uncertainty with Ukraine and the Middle East. Technically, we can see growth in the MACD, with more volume leaning toward buying, and the RSI showing significant momentum growth for the bullish movement. There is a greater chance of seeing more buying in the coming days. We remain bullish as overall prices stay elevated. However, there is a chance of a short retracement to normalize prices before they are carried back up. Still, we do not discount the possibility of prices continuing upward and reaching another historical record high.

SILVER

SILVER prices are consolidating after the news. There is potential for this market to experience a significant increase soon, but it is being kept low as a hedge against GOLD prices. While we see more buying than selling in the coming days, there is still a chance for further consolidation. The RSI and MACD fail to indicate a clear directional movement. Thus, we remain patient, waiting for more signals.

DXY

The Dollar slumped significantly, and the market reflects overall expectations. The MACD and RSI show normalization of the sell-off. While the gap remains a factor, making the indicators less reliable, the market's reaction aligns with our expectations. We anticipate massive moves today and tomorrow, and it may be best to wait until tomorrow or next week before returning to trading to protect our accounts.

GBPUSD

The Pound surged following the Dollars weakness. We can see the MACD and RSI reflecting growth in both volume and momentum. We expect more buying pressure to come in over the next few days.

AUDUSD

The Aussie Dollar remains consolidated and has yet to make a significant break. We remain at a standstill regarding expectations for this market, but we anticipate consolidation to extend as the RSI signals another oversold condition after reaching the lower boundary. Meanwhile, the MACD is showing increased bullish volume but is lagging in responding to the changes brought by the news.

NZDUSD

The Kiwi is more predictable than the Aussie Dollar, as we see an increased chance of a bullish continuation after finding support at 0.56859. While we do see the possibility of further growth in the coming days, we remain conservative until market movements normalize. We are still too close to the news event, which could shift overall market expectations.

EURUSD

The Euro followed our expectations, increasing the likelihood of prices continuing bullish. The MACD and RSI both appear bullish. We expect further buying to continue but maintain a level of conservatism, as prices could retrace slightly before continuing higher. Thus, we remain focused on bullish opportunities.

USDJPY

Investors are jumping to the Yen for security. This came as expected after we called for a bearish continuation yesterday when we saw the EMA200 reject prices and overall market momentum decline. We continue looking for selling opportunities, as the MACD shows increasing bearish volume.

USDCHF

The Franc is another good option for investors seeking security away from Dollar risks. The MACD and RSI indicate growth in both momentum and volume for selling. We expect further selling pressure in the coming days.

USDCAD

The CAD remains uncertain. While we see signs of strength in the CAD and a downward move in prices, we will wait for a clearer break of structure before setting expectations. This market is too volatile to take action at this moment.

COT Reports Analysis

AUD - WEAK (5/5)

GBP - STRONG (5/5)

CAD - WEAK (4/5)

EUR - STRONG (5/5)

JPY - STRONG (4/5)

CHF - WEAK (5/5)

USD - STRONG (3/5)

NZD - WEAK (4/5)

GOLD - STRONG (4/5)

SILVER - STRONG (4/5)