Weak Economic Data Fails to Undermine the Dollar's Resilience — All Eyes on Nonfarm Payrolls as Gold

Gold prices have come under pressure this week, weighed down by waning safe-haven demand and a persistently strong U.S. dollar. Despite a series of softening U.S. economic indicators suggesting a cooling labor market, gold has struggled to breach key technical resistance levels. Market attention is now firmly focused on the upcoming Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, which may offer crucial clues on the Federal Reserve's policy trajectory.

1. Slowing Economic Indicators Point to Cooling Labor Market

Job openings in March fell to 7.192 million, well below the expected 7.5 million and the lowest end of economists forecasts, according to the JOLTS report. While layoffs declined and hiring remained relatively stable, the uptick in the quit rate suggests some underlying structural resilience. Nevertheless, job vacancies have steadily declined from their 2022 peak and are now approaching pre-pandemic levels seen in 2020.

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)

Meanwhile, the New York Fed's Survey of Consumer Expectations shows deteriorating sentiment around future labor conditions. The average perceived probability of the unemployment rate rising over the next year surged to 44% — the highest level since April 2020 — underscoring weakening confidence in the job market.

2. Policy Uncertainty Dampens Business Expansion Plans

Analysts note that the Trump administrations renewed push for higher tariffs, combined with federal budget cuts and layoff initiatives, has significantly curbed corporate hiring appetite. Faced with prolonged supply chain uncertainty and rising cost pressures, many firms are delaying expansion plans to mitigate potential shocks. Additionally, consumer confidence has declined for five consecutive months, and the widening goods trade deficit has prompted some institutions to revise down their Q1 GDP forecasts. Altogether, these trends signal growing macroeconomic fragility.

Outlook: Gold Awaits NFP-Driven Breakout

Markets are currently pricing in the possibility of a weaker-than-expected NFP print. Should job growth come in significantly below prior levels, expectations for rate cuts later this year may strengthen, potentially providing upward momentum for gold. Conversely, a stronger-than-anticipated labor report could trigger a near-term pullback in gold prices. From a structural perspective, golds medium- to long-term uptrend remains intact, and the NFP release is likely to serve as a key short-term catalyst for directional breakout.

[Gold Price Outlook]

From a technical standpoint, gold remains firmly above the $3,300 level, consolidating near recent highs. While the Relative Strength Index (RSI) stays in bullish territory, its flattening slope signals a slowdown in momentum, with no clear dominance from bulls or bears in the short term. Ahead of Fridays jobs data, investors will also be closely watching other leading indicators such as the U.S. GDP revision and the Core PCE Price Index for clues on economic momentum and inflation trajectory. If these reports confirm further weakening, markets could preemptively price in Fed rate cuts, lending support to gold. Conversely, stronger data may expose gold to downside pressure.

Resistance levels: $3,363–3,370, $3,400

Support levels: $3,263, $3,300

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