Breaking News: This Could Shake Up Markets

MARKET ANALYSIS

GOLD

GOLD prices are appreciating, nearing the upper boundary of the consolidation zone, with bullish momentum supported by increased MACD and RSI readings. We anticipate further buying opportunities based on this positive technical outlook.

Fundamentally, mixed signals arise as President Trump has postponed a planned 50% tariff on European goods, aiming for July 9 negotiations. However, he also warned Apple Inc. of potential 25% tariffs if production remains outside the US. Last week, bullion gained nearly 5% amid trade uncertainties and concerns over the US economic outlook. Trump's new tax bill is projected to deepen the US deficit by almost $3 trillion over the next decade, further weakening the Dollar and propelling GOLD prices higher.

Analysts suggest GOLD could have its best week in over a month, reinforcing the expectation for a significant bullish move if technicals align.

SILVER

SILVER prices are currently finding a rise in market bullish movement with the RSI and the MACD seeing buying momentum and volume. This healthy uptrend is expected to continue in the coming days. The clear bounce off the EMA200 gives more chances that prices will break above 33.5028 and continue bullish. Thus, we will look for more buying opportunities this week.

DXY

The Dollar gets weaker. As we discussed earlier, Trump delays EU tariffs. This gave a rise to the Euro, pushing dollar prices down. Trump also threatened to impose a 25% tariff on iPhones sold in the US that are not manufactured domestically, raising concerns over broader trade tensions. There are also fiscal concerns revolving around the markets as Trumps sweeping spending and tax cut proposals had an indication of a possible undergoing of a “significant” revision in the Senate. Technically, further selling is also expected as the MACD and the RSI find increased selling volume and momentum. Overall price action also follows through with further selling as we previously read. Thus, we remain looking for more selling opportunities.

GBPUSD

The Pound rises significantly after Trump announces more time for the EU deal, contributing to the overall weakness of the dollar. We can see the MACD and the RSI find increased bullish volume and momentum. This healthy uptrend is expected to continue in the coming days.

AUDUSD

The Aussie dollar has broken out of its consolidation zone and is trending upwards beyond 0.65250, with bullish momentum indicated by the MACD and RSI. Upcoming monthly CPI data on Wednesday and retail sales on Friday are significant after the central bank suggested further policy easing. A July rate cut is now priced at a 65% probability, with a total easing of 75 basis points expected by early next year. We will continue to seek bullish opportunities.

NZDUSD

The Kiwi is showing increased bullish movement, with the RSI and MACD indicating strong buying momentum. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand will meet on Wednesday and is expected to cut interest rates to 3.25%, though uncertainty lingers about future moves. We anticipate further buying, but there may be a pullback ahead of the announcement as traders price in the rate cuts. Prices could also continue to rise due to uncertainty around the RBNZs actions. Any effects from the rate cut will likely follow this announcement.

EURUSD

The Euro successfully breaks out of the consolidation boundaries and finds increased bullish movement. The MACD and the RSI follow through with this bias and find increased chances for a buying continuation. We remain looking for more buying, especially now when a European-US trade deal is about to actualize with talks making progress.

USDJPY

Japan's stock market is rising after Trump announced a delay in tariffs on Europe, leading to increased investor risk appetite in Asian markets. Nomura's Naka Matsuzawa noted growing skepticism about the seriousness of the tariff policy, especially after lower rates on China. The bond market has stabilized, which has relieved the stock market. Technically, stronger momentum and volume indicators suggest a bearish continuation, benefiting the Yen and supporting expectations for further selling.

USDCHF

Franc prices find appreciation as they break the low as we expected after failing to reach the EMA200. There are more chances for prices to find selling continuation with the MACD and the RSI seeing increased selling momentum and volume.

USDCAD

CAD prices find more strength after Trumps rescinding from the tariff threats. This lowers his credibility and increases the risk appetite of traders. Thus, we can see the market find further strength going into the Canadian dollar. The MACD and the RSI find increased volume and momentum selling. We will continue to look for more selling in the coming days.

COT Reports Analysis

AUD - WEAK (5/5)

GBP - STRONG (2/5)

CAD - WEAK (5/5)

EUR - STRONG (3/5)

JPY - STRONG (4/5)

CHF - WEAK (5/5)

USD - MIXED

NZD - WEAK (4/5)

GOLD - STRONG (4/5)

SILVER - STRONG (5/5)