Inflation in Focus: Key CPI, PPI and Global Growth Signals Await

The Week Ahead: Week of 9th June 2025 (GMT+3)

Weekly Market Preview

Recent U.S. economic data has largely fallen short of expectations, with early signs that the impact of ongoing trade tensions may be materializing. Despite the weakening data, Federal Reserve officials remain divided on the appropriate course of action for monetary policy, as concerns persist that premature or aggressive rate cuts could exacerbate inflationary pressures. In this context, upcoming inflation figures will be critical in shaping market expectations.

In the week ahead, investor attention will be firmly focused on the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) releases, which are likely to influence the Fed‘s policy trajectory. From a global perspective, Japan’s GDP data will be closely monitored, given the yen‘s role as a key safe-haven currency. Meanwhile, Germany’s CPI report will also be in the spotlight, following the European Central Banks recent rate cut and downward revisions to economic forecasts.

Key Events to Watch:

Monday, June 9 – 02:50

Japan GDP (QoQ) (Q)

With the Bank of Japan increasingly considering a transition towards monetary tightening—citing persistent inflation and resilient economic activity—the release of Japans quarterly GDP will be critical. A stronger-than-expected figure would reinforce expectations for policy normalization and could drive volatility in the Japanese yen, while a disappointing print may prompt a more dovish policy stance.

Wednesday, June 11 – 17:00

US CPI (MoM) (May)

Previous: 0.20% | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A

The U.S. CPI remains a key barometer for consumer-level inflation. This month‘s reading takes on added significance amid concerns that trade tensions may be contributing to upward price pressures through supply chain disruptions. A higher-than-expected CPI figure could limit the Federal Reserve’s flexibility to lower rates, while a softer reading may support the case for a more accommodative monetary policy approach.

Wednesday, June 11 - 17:30

EIA Crude Oil Inventories

Previous: -4.304M | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A

Crude oil markets remain highly volatile, influenced by expectations of increased OPEC+ production and ongoing geopolitical uncertainties, particularly the Russia-Ukraine conflict. The U.S. EIA inventory report will offer a clearer view of short-term supply-demand dynamics. Larger-than-expected inventory builds may suggest weaker demand or oversupply, while declines may indicate tightening conditions.

Thursday, June 12 – 09:00

UK GDP (MoM) (Aprl)

Previous: 0.20% | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A

The British pound has struggled to maintain momentum following the OECD‘s recent downgrade of the UK’s economic outlook, citing potential fallout from global trade disruptions. The April GDP report will be instrumental in confirming or contradicting these concerns. Stronger growth figures may support a recovery in the pound, while weak data could reinforce bearish sentiment and policy caution.

Thursday, June 12 – 15:30

US PPI (MoM) (May)

Previous: -0.50% | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A

While CPI reflects end-consumer inflation, the Producer Price Index (PPI) measures price changes at the wholesale level, offering early insight into broader inflation trends. This months PPI release will help determine whether inflationary pressures are building within the supply chain. A stronger PPI reading could suggest input cost pressures, complicating the inflation outlook and monetary policy response.

Friday, June 13 – 09:00

German CPI (MoM) (May)

Previous: 0.40% | Forecast: 0.10% | Actual: N/A

Following the European Central Bank‘s recent rate cut and downward revision of its inflation outlook, the German CPI will serve as a key indicator of price stability in the Eurozone’s largest economy. Weaker inflation data would align with the ECBs cautious stance, while a surprise to the upside could challenge expectations and increase market volatility around the euro.