Risk Radar: High-Impact Events Unpacked

Market Insights

GOLD

GOLD prices fell off after making another high point beyond 3,391.26. This pullback is widely seen as profit-taking and positioning as traders await today's high-impact U.S. jobs report. We anticipate that the broader trend of buying will continue, especially given the current fundamental backdrop. Technically, the MACD and the RSI are progressing positively within this consolidation. We will wait for prices to break out of the current consolidation zone for a clearer trading opportunity. For now, we view this drop as a healthy rejection off the high, allowing the market to gather trades and accumulate momentum before a potential break higher and a continuation buy.

SILVER

SILVER prices rose to significant levels despite GOLD's temporary dip, suggesting some market participants may view Gold as overbought in the immediate short term. We expect further buying in SILVER, especially with Gold remaining near its all-time highs. The MACD and RSI are progressing smoothly, with prices showing increased opportunities for a buy continuation. Thus, we will now wait to see how prices progress from this high point.

DXY

The Dollar is showing increased potential for a break lower and a continuation of its recent weakness. However, the market is in a holding pattern as it waits to see how today's crucial U.S. employment data for May will be reported. These figures will be critical for navigating the health of the U.S. jobs market and its correlation with inflation. Traders will be closely watching the relationship between wage growth and inflation; for instance, if the Average Hourly Earnings figure disappoints while inflation remains a concern, it would be a sign of an unhealthy economy.

The market consensus leading into the report is for a headline Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) number around +125K to +130K, an Unemployment Rate holding at 4.2%, and Average Hourly Earnings rising by +0.3%. A significant deviation from these forecasts will likely dictate the Dollar's next move. In the meantime, we are seeing the MACD pick up on increased selling volume, while the RSI also indicates increased selling momentum. Thus, we anticipate further selling to continue, pending the data release.

GBPUSD

The Pound reached for the high and briefly broke it, but failed to sustain prices above that value. There is a strong chance for the market to continue its bullish trajectory, and we will continue to look for buying opportunities. Given the current momentum, we anticipate prices will continue upward. The MACD and RSI are indicating increased buying volume and momentum. Although a deeper retracement from the high is possible, the chances are higher for a direct continuation without a significant return lower.

AUDUSD

The Australian Dollar tested 0.65250 but failed to break it. We expect further buying to continue as the overall price action maintains a bullish bias. Despite the fact that we are now entering a larger consolidation zone, the chances for a bullish continuation out of this consolidation remain high. The MACD and RSI are also finding increased bullish momentum and volume.

NZDUSD

The Kiwi is currently showing increased chances for a bullish continuation based on how prices are progressing. We are seeing the MACD and RSI show bullish volume and momentum. Despite prices having dropped below 0.60455 after an initial rise above it, we still anticipate a continuation higher after a probable test of the EMA200. However, prices may not need to reach the EMA200 if the RSI reaches oversold levels sooner. Thus, we will continue to wait for how prices progress from here.

EURUSD

Euro prices are finding more buying interest even after the first attempt to break the high failed. The overall price action is very bullish, with the MACD and RSI following through with these expectations. We can see the RSI has normalized the buying momentum after the initial overbought signal, suggesting a healthy bullish trend. We will continue to look for more buying opportunities.

USDJPY

The Yen is currently showing an increased probability of consolidation, but the overall price action [for USD/JPY] remains very bearish. We will hold off on taking action in this market until a clearer break in either direction is achieved. However, we do still hold on to our bearish expectations.

USDCHF

The Franc is currently showing increased potential for a selling continuation [USD/CHF weakness] after the previous attempt to break the EMA200 failed. However, we are seeing prices consolidate at present. With that said, we will wait to see how the pair continues in the coming days. The MACD and RSI are reflecting this consolidation.

USDCAD

The CAD is currently finding increased selling opportunities [USD/CAD weakness], as evidenced by the MACD and RSI showing increased selling growth in both volume and momentum. Prices are also nearing recent lows and continue to trade steadily bearish. Thus, we will continue to look for more bearish opportunities.