DBG Markets: Market Report for Jun 13, 2025

MARKET ANALYSIS

GOLDGOLD prices are finding increased bullish movement, with prices showing a clear break of the recent consolidation structure. The primary catalyst for the rally was the significant heightening of geopolitical fears after Israel launched a preemptive strike against Iran on Thursday. Reports confirmed that Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz declared a special state of emergency, warning of an imminent missile and drone attack, which sent a shockwave of uncertainty through the markets and boosted demand for safe-haven assets.

This demand was further supported by growing uncertainty over U.S. trade policy. President Donald Trump has recently threatened to impose unilateral tariffs, while U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent suggested the current 90-day tariff pause could be extended, creating a conflicting and unpredictable policy environment. On the economic front, softer-than-expected U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) data earlier this week increased expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts this year, providing further support for non-yielding assets like Gold.

SILVERWhile also supported by the same pro-metals fundamentals, SILVER is maintaining a slower pace. Prices are currently supported by the EMA200, and both the MACD and RSI are showing steady gains for the bullish movement. This relative underperformance compared to Gold's sharp rally may be due to traders focusing their safe-haven flows primarily on Gold for the time being. We will wait for further confirmation, but our outlook is that the current environment will most likely allow Gold to appreciate further.

DXYThe Dollar is currently experiencing increased selling momentum and volume, as reflected by the RSI and the MACD. This drop occurred as we expected. The Dollar, which has lost significant value against a basket of currencies this year, fell to its lowest level since April 2022 after this week's weaker-than-expected U.S. inflation data (CPI & PPI) for May suggested that the Federal Reserve could resume cutting interest rates sooner rather than later. The Dollar Index (DXY) is trading near the 97.932 level. We look for more selling but await the completion of any retracement, as short-term buying pressure could still exist.

GBPUSDThe Pound has broken away from the upper boundary of its range, showing increased strength for a buy continuation. We now expect further buying to continue in the coming days, with the current movement seen as a temporary pause before a continuation higher. The MACD and the RSI are also stable in their indication of a rise in bullish momentum and volume. Thus, we will look for more opportunities to buy this market.

AUDUSDThe Australian Dollar is currently experiencing a continuation of its consolidation. This consolidation persists despite the weakness in the Dollar. The relative weakness in the Aussie dollar comes as geopolitical risks worsen in the Middle East, lowering demand for risk-on assets. We will hold off on calling a specific direction for this market until we see a clear break of structure.

NZDUSDThe Kiwi is also maintaining a consolidation similar to the Australian Dollar. We will hold off on calling a specific market direction until we find a proper market break of structure.

EURUSDThe Euro is currently testing a daily structure at 1.16110 and is finding increased selling pressure after reaching this level. The MACD is shifting lower while the RSI is normalizing the selling momentum. However, until we see a clear shift in the overall structure, we will remain focused on looking for further buying opportunities. Thus, even with this structural development, we will continue to look for buying opportunities, waiting for a clear bounce off a support structure. The chance for a deeper retracement does exist.

USDJPYThe Yen continues its gains due to rising geopolitical risks, which appreciate risk-off assets like the Yen. The MACD and the RSI are consistent in their indication of bearish gains [for USD/JPY] as prices continue strongly in the sell-off. We anticipate further selling in the coming days. However, the overall price action is still consolidated within a larger range, so the best plan of action would be to wait for a clearer break of structure.

USDCHFThe Franc is gaining from the fundamental backdrop as a more stable, safe-haven currency. The MACD and the RSI reflect the significant bearish gains [for USD/CHF] and are indicating chances of a continued sell-off. Thus, we will wait for further selling to continue in the coming days.

USDCADThe CAD also gains [pushing USD/CAD lower] to break through the low, reaching just shy of the 1.35895 level. The MACD and the RSI strongly reflect that further selling is likely to continue in the coming days. We anticipate further selling but will wait to see how prices progress from here.