DBG Markets: Market Report for Jun 19, 2025

Market Analysis

GOLD

GOLD prices are still trading underneath the recent highs, waiting for a clear directional catalyst. We expect further buying to continue from the current price levels, although there is a chance for prices to tap the EMA200 as support first. The fall from the highs came unexpectedly after the fundamentally bullish developments over the weekend. One would expect that with heightened tensions in the Middle East and a weaker dollar outlook, there would be a rise in Gold. The current price levels may have come after some larger traders took profit to drive prices down for better value before a potential buy continuation. Regardless, the environment presents increased buying chances. However, the RSI is reflecting exaggerated buying conditions, and the MACD is showing bearish growth. Thus, we will wait for prices to normalize before considering new buy entries, although our expectations remain bullish.

SILVER

SILVER prices have retracted from their high point but are being supported by the 36.7308 level. We anticipate further buying to continue in the coming days but do take into consideration the consolidation in the Metals sector, which may be due to some safe-haven demand rotating into Oil prices.

DXY

Strength came into the Dollar after the Federal Reserve's policy meeting yesterday. In a widely expected move, the Fed held rates steady at the 4.25%-4.50% range. The accompanying “dot plot” signaled that policymakers still expect to cut rates by a median of a half a percentage point this year, although reports highlighted a growing division within the committee, with more officials seeing fewer or no cuts needed.

During his press conference, Fed Chair Jerome Powell acknowledged the challenges from trade policy, stating that he expects goods price inflation to pick up over the summer as President Trump's tariffs work their way to consumers. He noted, “Ultimately, the cost of the tariff has to be paid, and some of it will fall on the end consumer.”

GBPUSD

The Pound is continuing its losses against the Dollar. The MACD and the RSI reflect the bearish momentum and volume of the market. It is now expected for the Pound to continue bearishly as prices have crashed under relevant market structure. We are now looking for more selling opportunities.

AUDUSD

Contrary to expectations, the Australian Dollar is holding up better than the Pound despite the risk-off nature of the current markets. We are seeing the consolidation progress further while waiting to see how the geopolitical conditions will continue. We will hold off on calling a specific direction until a break is found.

NZDUSD

The Kiwi is currently testing the low of its price range. There is a chance for us to find increased selling if prices stay under the current consolidation's lower barrier. However, if it returns above it, we will see a continuation of the consolidation. We will wait to see how the situation will progress.

EURUSD

The Euro is currently finding increased selling but has yet to shift its overall price momentum to bearish. The current price levels are testing the upper boundary of the previous consolidation zone. If the price returns below this level, we might find another set of consolidated trading. It is important to note that the RSI and the MACD are showing increased bearish momentum and volume, and the EMA200 is also keeping prices below it. Thus, we will wait for a clear return to bullish strength or a clear break lower before a shift is called. For now, we are still maintaining our overall bullish outlook for the market.

USDJPY

The Yen is currently finding increased bullish movement [for USD/JPY] but is still stuck in a consolidation. As weve previously said, we will hold off on calling a specific direction until we find a more definitive break of structure.

USDCHF

The Franc has returned back up into its consolidation zone and has broken through the EMA200 [on USD/CHF]. However, we will not call a shift in the overall price momentum yet. We will maintain our overall bearish outlook and wait to see how prices progress within the consolidation zone. The MACD is showing increased bullish volume but it appears muted despite the rise in price. The RSI is also showing rising bullish momentum but remains out of overbought territory, suggesting there could be more room for prices to climb. Thus, there is a large chance for prices to continue upward, but for how long？ We will not be confident until we see a clear break of structure.

USDCAD

The CAD is currently finding increased bullish momentum and volume [for USD/CAD], with the RSI and the MACD following through. We can see prices have bounced off the EMA200 to reach for the 1.37261 level. As we mentioned yesterday, we have shifted our overall momentum to bullish, and we are continuing to look for more buying opportunities. Until we find a clear rejection of price from this high and a return to selling, we will maintain our buying outlook.