Bitcoin Reclaims $105K as Ceasefire Hopes Ignite Risk Rally

Key Takeaways:

● Bitcoin surged sharply in the last session as the market turned to risk-on sentiment.

● BTC is hindered at the key pivotal level at near the $106,000 mark.

Market Summary:

Bitcoin mounted a sharp rebound, rallying nearly 8% from its six-week low of $98,385 as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East showed signs of easing. Risk appetite improved across global markets following reports of a potential ceasefire between Israel and Iran, sparking a broad-based rally that lifted the flagship cryptocurrency back above the psychologically key $100,000 threshold, with prices climbing past $105,000 at the time of writing.

The broader crypto market participated in the upswing, pushing total market capitalization above $3.2 trillion. However, Bitcoin‘s market dominance edged lower, suggesting altcoins are drawing increased investor interest and hinting that BTC’s rally may still be in its early stages. Should the geopolitical backdrop continue to stabilize, Bitcoin may extend its upward momentum, with traders eyeing resistance levels beyond $106,000 as potential breakout zones.

The move highlights Bitcoins high sensitivity to macro conditions and shifts in risk sentiment. If the ceasefire agreement holds and global optimism persists, BTC could see further capital inflows. Conversely, any renewed flare-up in geopolitical tensions could reintroduce volatility, underscoring the importance of monitoring both technical thresholds and real-time developments in the Middle East.

Technical Analysis

BTC, H4

Bitcoin's recent rebound has gained traction after the price decisively broke through a key fair-value gap left during its previous downtrend, signaling a potential shift in market structure toward bullish momentum. The rally, however, appears to have stalled near the critical $106,000 resistance level, where signs of near-term exhaustion are emerging. This pivotal zone now serves as a make-or-break level for BTC's next directional move - a firm breakout above it would confirm bullish strength and likely trigger further upside, while rejection could see prices retreat to test lower support levels.

The technical backdrop shows encouraging signs of recovery. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has climbed out of oversold territory, reflecting improving buying pressure, though it remains comfortably below overbought levels, leaving room for additional upside. Meanwhile, the MACD indicator completed a bullish crossover near recent lows and continues its ascent toward the zero line, demonstrating a gradual shift from bearish to bullish momentum. These developments suggest waning selling pressure, though confirmation above $106,000 is needed to solidify the bullish case.

Looking ahead, the $106,000 level represents a crucial battleground between bulls and bears. A successful breakout could open the path toward the $110,000 resistance zone, potentially fueled by FOMO buying and improving market sentiment. Conversely, failure to overcome this barrier might lead to a retest of support around $102,000-$103,000, with the psychological $100,000 level and key moving averages likely serving as stronger support zones in case of deeper pullbacks.

Resistance Levels: 111,750.00, 117,200.00

Support Levels: 97,600.00, 91,800.00