Quick Hits from Today's Markets

MARKET ANALYSIS

GOLD

"GOLD prices were little changed yesterday while testing the key high boundary of the consolidation levels. There is a chance for prices to continue bullishly as a new narrative comes into the charts—Trumps tariffs are back in the picture, as the July 9th end of the 90-day grace period for several trading partners is approaching. The MACD is also indicating increased bullish movement, and the RSI is following through with the rise in bullish momentum.

However, there is a chance that the market will continue bearishly due to the overall price action still maintaining a selling structure. Thus, we cannot call for a complete bullish shift until we see a clear structural break to the upside. The EMA200 might be tested, and that could be a safe target where a buying opportunity comes in. For the meantime, we will hold our trades safely until we find a clearer shift in structure."

SILVER

SILVER prices went up due to the weakness in the Dollar and the lack of movement in GOLD. There was little activity in GOLD despite the weaker Dollar; normally, the appeal of GOLD prices should have increased, but there was no significant movement. SILVER prices went up in its stead due to its own appeal, which is also driven by the ongoing geopolitical conflicts and worries of further intensity. This is bullish for SILVER. The MACD and the RSI are also positioned for further buying in the coming days. However, we cannot call for a definite surge in strength as prices are still stuck in a consolidation. It is important to note that it did respect the overall bullish structure of prices.

DXY

The Dollar drops further, and there is an expectation that it will go even lower. This should entail GOLD prices being more positive and its counterparts finding huge gains—but other markets are showing little movement despite this. The MACD is finding increased selling volume, and the bearish strength is high. Although, the RSI is indicating overbought levels [on USD/XXX pairs] and might cause prices to rise for a bit to normalize the selling. Not to mention, there was a huge gap as this Asian session opened—showing significant sentiment for selling. Conflict in the Middle East is still grasping for a resolution, making us doubt the direction that this might take in the longer run. But as we read previously during the Monday analysis, we expected that the Dollar would drop further regardless of its role in the conflict. While it rose in the initial stages, it has since resumed its drop, just as expected.

GBPUSD

The Pound gains further as prices find increased buying strength. The MACD is following through with strong buying volume, while the RSI is also finding increased buying momentum. We expect further buying to continue, though we will wait for another buying opportunity after a retracement occurs. The break of the previous high is now cleared after the bounce off the boundary.

AUDUSD

The Aussie Dollar is gaining traction as buying sentiment rises following a fragile ceasefire. Despite expectations for RBA rate cuts fueled by recent softer inflation data (2.1% CPI for May), the market shows a bullish outlook. A 25 basis point rate cut is anticipated in July, with the potential for two to three cuts by year-end. This positive sentiment supports economic growth targets. While we've taken a cautious stance due to the current consolidation zone, a break above this level could lead to further buying in the coming days.

NZDUSD

The Kiwi is finding further buying after the shift was made clear yesterday. While it started slow, there are now more chances for it to continue buying after the break above 0.60455. We will look into more buying opportunities. The MACD and the RSI are also reflecting a rise in buying momentum and volume.

EURUSD

Euro prices are also finding further buying and have already cleanly broken up the barrier. The 1.16110 level is now acting as support for prices. We expect further buying to continue, and the MACD is finding increased buying volume. The RSI, however, is close to overbought levels and might retrace before a bullish continuation.

USDJPY

The Yen is currently finding increased selling [for USD/JPY] as prices have maintained their overall bearish momentum. The break has already occurred, and strength in the Yen might continue due to the overall weakness in the Dollar. The MACD is finding increased selling, and the RSI is also finding a normalization for the selling.

USDCHF

The Franc is finding increased selling momentum and volume [for USD/CHF]. The MACD is indicating increased selling volume while the RSI is normalizing the selling. There is a chance for the pair to rise a bit before it drops continuously. We expect further selling to continue due to the weakness in the Dollar. As we mentioned earlier, the counterparts to the Dollar will find further gains.

USDCAD

The CAD is showing us a consolidation. Until we find a clear break of structure, we will refrain from overly speculating where it goes.