Market Snapshot – July 2: Key Levels & Breaking News

Market Analysis

GOLD

GOLD prices have tested the upper boundary of the price range, finding increased chances for a sell continuation. We are currently expecting the price to continue bearishly after this bounce off the structure. The MACD is seeing selling volume come in, although its strength is questionable. However, the RSI is already indicating oversold levels, suggesting there is a chance for prices to turn from the EMA200 and continue bullishly. Depending on how prices react to these structures, we might find a continuation buy or sell. For now, as long as prices do not break the overall bullish price action structure, we will retain our short-term bearish expectations within the range.

Fundamentally, Gold is being pulled in multiple directions. In a significant de-escalation, President Trump said Tuesday that Israel has agreed to a 60-day Gaza ceasefire proposal and warned Hamas to accept the deal before conditions worsen. This news reduces some immediate safe-haven demand. However, a weaker U.S. Dollar is providing support for Gold, driven by fiscal concerns after the Senate passed Trumps tax-and-spending megabill, which is projected to add $3.3 trillion to the national debt. Adding to the uncertainty, Trump also expressed frustration over U.S.-Japan trade talks, threatening a 35% tariff on Japanese imports. Currently, we are measuring the strength of GOLD based on how the Fed will handle rate cut expectations after the key Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report, which is due for release a day early on Thursday.

SILVER

SILVER prices are still consolidated. We will hold off on calling a specific direction for this market.

DXY

The Dollar is currently consolidated near its new lows. We expect further selling from this point, as the overall structure respects bearish momentum. A bullish divergence may be forming, with the MACD showing rising volume despite the low in price, while the RSI indicates overbought levels on shorter timeframes. However, this is contradicted by the broader bearish price structure, suggesting any strength may be temporary.

GBPUSD

The Pound continues to consolidate near its high point. This gives us further chances for a bullish continuation, as prices appear comfortable in this range. We are looking for more buying opportunities, especially if we finally see prices break above the range. The MACD and the RSI are showing increased buying movement, but we will hold off on fully acting on this signal as the price is still inside the consolidation zone.

AUDUSD

The Aussie Dollar is climbing, albeit slowly. The MACD and the RSI also reflect the overall expectation for a bullish continuation. We expect further buying to continue in the coming days.

NZDUSD

The Kiwi is currently finding increased bullish momentum and volume. The RSI and the MACD are also indicating increased bullish momentum and volume. We expect to find further buying opportunities in the coming days.

EURUSD

Euro prices are currently testing the barrier high. If the pair fails to break this high again, we will call for a consolidation continuation. Currently, the MACD and the RSI are also following through on the bullish momentum and volume. We expect further buying opportunities to come.

USDJPY

The Yen is also gaining strength [USD/JPY is falling], following through on further bearish momentum and volume, which is reflected in the RSI and the overall price action. We expect to see more selling opportunities until a clear break of the bullish structure is found. Currently, we are still on a sell in this market.

USDCHF

The Franc is finding increased selling opportunities [for USD/CHF] and further bearish momentum and volume, as reflected in the MACD and the RSI. While prices might retrace or stall for a bit, we expect further selling to continue. This is due to how unstable the Dollar is right now; with everything going on in the economy, traders and analysts are expected to look for alternatives like Gold and the Franc. The Franc is expected to gain further against the Dollar.

USDCAD

The CAD is currently testing the EMA200 again and is unsure of where to head next. The MACD is swinging strongly on both sides, showing increasing chances for a consolidation. Although it is important to note that while the consolidated swings are there, the market is leaning towards a more bearish structure [for USD/CAD]. The RSI is also signaling a potential sell continuation after indicating overbought levels. We will hold off on overly speculating where this market will go, but according to the overall price action, it is most likely to continue bearishly in the coming days.