U.S. Stocks Hit New Highs as Gold and Oil Rally Together

Market Overview

A newly signed U.S.-Vietnam trade agreement boosted market risk appetite, sparking a broad rebound led by tech stocks. Both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed at fresh all-time highs. Following the release of the ADP employment report, U.S. Treasury yields fell, with the 2-year yield hitting a new intraday low, signaling growing caution about the economic outlook. The U.S. Dollar Index experienced sharp intraday swings—though it briefly turned positive, it ultimately extended its three-year low. Gold prices surged, supported by both safe-haven demand and a weaker dollar, hitting a one-week high. Oil prices also jumped over 3% intraday to new highs, as optimism around recovering global demand outweighed a surprise build in U.S. EIA crude inventories, which briefly triggered a pullback.

Hot Topics to Watch

● Trump Announces U.S.-Vietnam Trade Agreement

Former President Trump stated that the U.S. will impose a 20% tariff on Vietnamese goods and a 40% tariff on goods rerouted through Vietnam. In contrast, Vietnam will allow tariff-free access for U.S. goods and fully open its market to American products. Nike shares spiked more than 4% intraday, while the S&P 500 reached a record high. Vietnamese state media reported that Vietnams leader spoke with Trump by phone, requesting a rollback of U.S. export restrictions on high-tech items. Reports also suggest Vietnam will purchase $8 billion worth of Boeing aircraft, with Boeing shares rising over 2% intraday. Ahead of a reciprocal tariff suspension deadline on July 9, the U.S. plans to impose a 46% tariff on Vietnamese imports.

● “Mini Nonfarm” Misses Expectations

The ADP private payrolls report delivered a shock as U.S. private-sector employment dropped by 33,000 in June—the first negative print since March 2023—far below the expected 98,000. May‘s data was also revised down to just 29,000. The services sector saw its sharpest job losses since the pandemic. The report noted that U.S. employers, wary of potential impacts from Trump’s trade policies, have grown increasingly cautious and are doubling down on cost-cutting efforts. Companies are now focused on aligning headcount with this years slowdown in economic activity.

Key Data to Watch (All Times GMT+8)

• 20:30 U.S. June Unemployment Rate

• 20:30 U.S. June Nonfarm Payrolls (Seasonally Adjusted)

• 20:30 U.S. Weekly Initial Jobless Claims (as of June 28)

• 20:30 U.S. June Average Hourly Earnings (MoM and YoY)

• 21:45 U.S. June S&P Global Services PMI Final

• 22:00 U.S. June ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI

• 22:00 U.S. May Factory Orders (MoM)