Earnings Super Week Begins: Watch ASML & TSMC on Wednesday and Thursday

Following last weeks renewed tariff threats from Trump that rattled global markets, investors now shift their focus to Q2 earnings season. With the U.S. dollar sharply depreciated, this environment is expected to boost U.S. corporate earnings—particularly since 45% of S&P 500 profits come from overseas markets. However, if risk assets fail to rally on strong earnings, it may signal that bullish catalysts have been fully priced in, raising the risk of a pullback in Q3.

The potential correction would likely stem from inventory destocking. However, U.S. inventory corrections typically last only 3–6 months. Once this phase concludes, the market could enter a rapid restocking cycle. We believe such urgent orders will be sustainable due to the economy entering the final stage of the productivity cycle—the boom phase.

(Chart 1: This Weeks Earnings Super Week; Source: Earnings Whispers)

In the first half of the week, attention is centered on U.S. bank earnings. Despite high interest rates and a weaker dollar, the earnings outlook for banks remains relatively optimistic. This is because banks are traditional asset-heavy businesses that generate income primarily from lending, asset investments, and international operations (foreign exchange, service fees, and overseas branches).

A weaker dollar increases returns when foreign currencies are converted back into USD. For U.S.-based banks with significant overseas exposure, FX gains can materially lift earnings. For example, if a U.S. bank earns substantial revenue in euros, converting those profits back into USD at a weaker dollar rate results in higher reported income.

Midweek, all eyes will be on ASML and TSMC earnings. ASML is a key bellwether for the semiconductor cycle as the sole supplier of advanced EUV lithography equipment. Order trends from ASML often reflect the broader industrys health. Meanwhile, TSMC remains the global leader in chip manufacturing. Both firms face FX headwinds this quarter, which may impact gross margins.

Investor focus during the earnings calls will likely revolve around four key themes:

• Growth in AI chip orders

• Progress in advanced process technologies

• Capex plans and geographic diversification

• Geopolitical and tariff-related risks

We see higher earnings volatility midweek, especially for manufacturers. The backdrop of U.S.–China trade tensions, tariff disputes, and TSMCs shift away from its Japan expansion toward U.S. priorities adds layers of uncertainty. Ultimately, updated forward guidance from these firms will determine how durable end-user demand truly is—fueling rising hedging demand across markets.

Gold has seen renewed safe-haven inflows. As shown in the chart below, speculative positioning minus hedger interest in the COT (Commitment of Traders) report continues to rise, pushing gold prices steadily higher.


• (Chart 2: Gold COT Positioning; Source: MacroMicro)

Gold Technical Analysis



On the hourly chart, gold is pulling back toward the previous neckline support at $3356. Watch for a bullish engulfing candle to confirm a reversal. If the neckline holds, long positions can be considered with a $15 stop loss. On the daily chart, the double-top formation has been invalidated. We now shift from a bearish to a neutral-to-bullish bias.

Key support lies at $3356 and $3336. If the neckline fails to hold, focus turns to $3336 as the next support. A break below that level would suggest a return to a range-bound market and call for a neutral stance.

• Support: 3356 / 3336

• Resistance: 3373