Your Daily Dose of Market Direction

Market Analysis

GOLD

GOLD rose above the boundary of its price range but was quick to retract from the high. The MACD and the RSI are showing a massive increase in bullish movement, but the overall price action has yet to shift back to an overall buying trend. However, it is important to take note of how prices will move from here, as there is a chance that they will show comfort outside the upper boundary, which would shift the overall price action.

SILVER

Prices rose significantly overnight, following through with our overall expectations. While the burst was sudden, it was expected after the price broke through the upper boundary of its range. The MACD and the RSI are showing a steady rise in bullish momentum and volume. We anticipate further buying to continue in the coming days. The strength behind both SILVER and GOLD came after weekend announcements regarding U.S. tariffs, which are set to take place on the 1st of August, renewed safe-haven demand.

DXY

The Dollar continues to gain immediate strength after the "inflationary" tariff announcements were made. The overall price action of the market is respecting the bullish structure. The MACD and the RSI are also reflecting bullish growth as they normalize the recent increase.

However, it is important to note that while the tariff tactics of President Trump are currently boosting the dollar, the reason GOLD and SILVER are rising alongside it is due to the volatile and new nature of these policies. Investors and analysts are split on what to expect in the days ahead. What many are doing is grasping for clues on how this will affect the economy. Right now, what we can do is wait for the series of major reports coming this week to get a clue of how the first wave of tariffs may have affected the economy. This data includes U.S. Retail Sales on Tuesday, PPI and Industrial Production on Wednesday, and the key CPI inflation report on Friday. Another clear factor influencing expectations is how the Fed will react to this data and adjust rate cuts, as markets are currently pricing in just over 50 basis points of Fed easing by December.

GBPUSD

The Pound is currently seeing an increase in bearish movement, as we expected. Last week, we called for a continuation lower as it continued to break through relevant structures of price. This was a textbook drop, as it seemingly tested relevant structures before pushing through the lows. The MACD and the RSI are also reflecting strong gains for bearish volume and momentum. We anticipate further selling in the coming days.

Fueling this bearish sentiment, President Trump on Saturday announced the latest tariff details in separate letters to European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum, which were posted on his Truth Social media site. Both the European Union and Mexico described the tariffs as unfair and disruptive, while the E.U. said it would extend its suspension of countermeasures to U.S. tariffs until early August and continue to press for a negotiated settlement. Further selling opportunities for the Pound are expected.

AUDUSD

The Australian Dollar is currently still stuck within its consolidation zone. We will refrain from entering a trade until we see a clear break of structure. Until such a break occurs, we will retain our expectations of a bearish market momentum, as the overall price action has not yet shifted back to bullish.

NZDUSD

As expected, the Kiwi continues to trade lower after it failed to break above the EMA200. However, it is still stuck inside its range. We will wait to see if it will successfully break below 0.59796 before calling for a bearish continuation. The MACD and the RSI are finding increased selling momentum and volume.

EURUSD

Euro prices are finding increased consolidation, even after the recent development with President Trumps decisions on tariffs targeting the E.U. That being the case, we will refrain from calling a move until a clear break in the pair's boundaries is found.

USDJPY

The Yen continues to lose ground against the Dollar [USD/JPY is rising], showing a continuation in the upward trend. The MACD and the RSI are also finding further gains for bullish momentum and volume. We will look for more buying opportunities.

USDCHF

As we expected, the Franc continues to hold within its consolidation despite the strength in the Dollar. With that, we will wait to see how it will run in the coming days and for a clear break to occur before committing to a move.

USDCAD

The CAD is also very consolidated right now. We will refrain from calling a direction for this pair until a clear break of structure is found.

COT Report Analysis

AUD - WEAK (5/5)

GBP - STRONG (5/5)

CAD - WEAK (5/5)

EUR - STRONG (5/5)

JPY - STRONG (3/5)

CHF - WEAK (4/5)

USD - WEAK (5/5)

NZD - STRONG (4/5)

GOLD - STRONG (5/5)

SILVER - STRONG (3/5)