Markets in Motion: Today's Forex Vibes & Volatility

Market Analysis

GOLD

GOLD prices are still testing key levels, and we will wait for a clear break before calling for a specific direction. It is important to note that while the market is seemingly showing a bullish continuation, the price is still respecting the overall bearish structures. Thus, we will maintain our focus on looking for selling opportunities, although the chance for a bullish turnaround does exist. The safest thing to do right now is wait.

SILVER

Prices are still very bullish right now, maintaining their overall buying structure. Thus, we will continue to wait for and look for buying opportunities. Prices are currently testing the EMA200. The MACD and the RSI are also indicating more buying potential. Thus, we will wait to see how the buying will progress in the coming days. This movement follows through with our analysis from last week.

DXY

The Dollar is holding steady as the August 1st tariff deadline approaches. The price is still very consolidated, and the RSI and MACD are moving rather erratically. We anticipate more trading to come in the coming days after this consolidated phase, especially with a busy U.S. economic calendar this week that includes Advance GDP on Thursday and the key Core PCE Price Index on Friday.

GBPUSD

The Pound is currently testing the EMA200. We still expect more selling to come after this slowdown in bearish price action. The MACD and the RSI are reflecting increased selling momentum and volume. We are looking for more selling opportunities in the coming days.

AUDUSD

The Aussie Dollar is currently testing the EMA200. There is still lots of space for the selling to continue, and the momentum and volume for the sell-off are also very strong right now. However, the momentum reflected in both the MACD and the RSI is currently looking to buy more due to the test of the EMA200. We suspect that prices will consolidate here to buy time before they continue bearishly in the coming days.

NZDUSD

The Kiwi is currently looking to sell more. The EMA200 is being tested, and there is a chance that prices could continue bearishly. The MACD and the RSI are currently finding increased bullish growth, but this comes after prices gained to test the EMA200. We still anticipate more selling to come.

EURUSD

Euro prices are also still consolidated, with the MACD and the RSI showing increased bearish momentum and volume. This is notable after prices had previously gained significant bullish momentum in both indicators, but the price itself has remained muted in its progression. This allows us to assume that selling pressure is still stronger. We will look for more selling opportunities as prices fail to break above the EMA200.

USDJPY

The Yen is currently on a key structure, looking to buy more [for USD/JPY] as weakness in the Yen emerges from the recent tariff threats and new domestic political developments. Political uncertainty in Japan is rising after the ruling coalition's heavy loss in the Upper House election over the weekend. As noted by Paul Mackel, Global Head of FX Research at HSBC, this outcome is "likely to weigh on the yen," which could cause major weakness in the coming days. Technically, the MACD and the RSI also show strong momentum and volume for the buying, albeit with the RSI being a bit consolidated. We will look for more buying opportunities in this market.

USDCHF

The Franc is currently testing the EMA200 [on USD/CHF]. The MACD and the RSI are finding increased selling volume and momentum, but like the other currencies, this was part of a move to test the EMA200. There is a chance for prices to continue bullishly, as the pair has shifted its overall momentum to buying. Thus, we are still looking for more buying opportunities until a complete shift in the overall market momentum is found.

USDCAD

The CAD is currently slow in its upward movement [for USD/CAD] as the Canadian Dollar fights back. The MACD is finding increased selling volume while the RSI is still waiting to see how it will progress. The price is still overall bullish after the last shift, but it is consolidated in an upward channel. Thus, we will wait to see how this will progress. Most likely, prices will be moving upward as the EMA200 is holding the price up.

COT Report Analysis

AUD - WEAK (4/5)

GBP - STRONG (4/5)

CAD - WEAK (5/5)

EUR - STRONG (5/5)

JPY - STRONG (2/5)

CHF - WEAK (5/5)

USD - WEAK (4/5)

NZD - STRONG (3/5)

GOLD - STRONG (5/5)

SILVER - STRONG (5/5)