The Fed is unlikely to cut rates Wednesday, but this meeting is packed with intrigue

Considering nothing is likely to happen when it comes to major policy decisions, this week's Federal Reserve meeting is packed with intrigue.

When the Federal Open Market Committee releases its interest rate decision Wednesday afternoon, the narrative is almost certain to look a lot like the June meeting, with little changed in the statement and officials again holding off on any cuts.

However, several fascinating subplots will be in play. Consider:

• Two Fed governors — Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman — are potential “no” votes on keeping the federal funds rate locked at 4.25%-4.5%. If so, it will be the first time multiple governors have dissented since late 1993. Both have advocated for a rate cut. Waller's standing as a long-shot replacement for Chair Jerome Powell next year makes his vote even more significant.
• This will be the first meeting since President Donald Trump's historic visit to the Fed's construction site and the kerfuffle that has erupted over cost overruns there. Central bank officials have been using an aggressive public relations campaign to counter White House criticism, and the issue is sure to come up during Powell's post-meeting news conference.
• The Fed has plenty to ruminate over when it comes to the economy, including the possibility that Trump's tariffs may not be having the inflationary impact that many economists feared. That makes delaying a rate cut harder to justify, with Trump's demands for dramatic policy easing complicating the backdrop even more.

Ultimately, though, the committee is likely to stand pat, putting the distractions on the side and the decision over a cut off to September.

“They're not going to get anything if they ease, other than they'll look like they're knuckling under to the president,” said Bill English, the Fed's former head of monetary affairs and now a professor at the Yale School of Management. “So I think their best policy for sure is just to look at the data, make their best judgment, make their policy decision and explain it as well as they can.”