Where Are Markets Headed Next?

Market Overview

The market is awaiting the U.S. Core Retail Sales data set to be released later today. This report will be a critical driver of market movement and will heavily influence expectations for the Federal Reserve's September rate decision.

Market Analysis

GOLD

Gold prices remain largely unchanged, continuing the consolidation period. The price fell from the EMA200, which was within our expectations for sideways movement. A bullish continuation from here is possible, but our outlook will ultimately depend on the direction of the U.S. Dollar following today's data. We will continue to wait for a clear break.

SILVER

Silver has consolidated and is currently trading on the EMA200. The technical picture is mixed; while the overall structure remains bullish, short-term indicators like the MACD and RSI are showing growing bearish momentum. Given these conflicting signals, we will hold off on a directional call until we see a clear break of the current price structure.

DXY

The Dollar is showing increased bearish momentum. The EMA200 recently acted as strong resistance, reinforcing the bearish case. The MACD showed a brief bullish push but was also rejected at the EMA. Furthermore, the RSI is heading toward oversold levels, which could signal a short-term retracement before a potential continuation lower. The main catalyst will be the Core Retail Sales data released later today; a weak report would likely signify the need for a rate cut and push the dollar lower.

GBPUSD

There are no changes to our readings for the Pound. We will continue to wait for a clear breakout and still expect more buying, contingent on the U.S. Dollar narrative.

AUDUSD

The Aussie dollar is currently seeing increased bearish momentum, as found in the RSI and the MACD. However, this is occurring within a larger bullish price structure. Therefore, our outlook is cautious as we wait to see how the market digests the U.S. data.

NZDUSD

The Kiwi is also finding increased bearish momentum and volume in both the MACD and the RSI. Given these signals, we will look for more bearish opportunities, while noting that the overall price action has not yet confirmed a complete bearish shift.

EURUSD

The Euro is currently holding at the EMA200 support level. A nuanced technical picture is forming: while the MACD is showing some selling volume, the muted price response suggests that buying pressure is stronger at the moment. With the overall price action remaining bullish, we will look for more buying opportunities.

USDJPY

The Yen is strengthening, leading to increased selling in the USD/JPY pair. The MACD and RSI are providing erratic, high-volatility signals which may be unreliable at this time. Therefore, we will prioritize the overall price action, which remains bearish. We will continue to look for more bearish opportunities.

USDCHF

The Franc remains consolidated and has yet to move away from its recent range. We will wait to see how this market progresses in the coming days.

USDCAD

The USD/CAD pair is now buying further, showing weakness in the Canadian Dollar. While the overall market trend has been bearish, the price is currently testing a key structure that could signal a bullish shift. The MACD and RSI are both reflecting this buying momentum. We will wait for a clear break above this structure before confirming a trend reversal.