Japan and UK Stocks Surge. BOE This Week - Week 44| Technical Analysis by Jasper Lawler

Week Ahead📅 3-9 November, 2025

Global stocks hit fresh all time highs last week with the UK and Japan leading the gains, while the US dollar ended the week on a strong footing as the British pound hit a 6-month low.

Markets enter the first full week of November with a lighter calendar after a data-heavy stretch dominated by four major central bank decisions. Attention now shifts to the Bank of England, RBA, and key US and Chinese releases amid ongoing government shutdown uncertainty.

Week in Review

📰 News

Central banks steady the course:

The Fed cut rates by 25bps and ended its QT programme from December but struck a more hawkish tone. Chair Powell cautioned against assuming another cut in December, reducing the probability of further easing this year.

The ECB left policy unchanged, with President Lagarde maintaining a balanced outlook as Eurozone inflation eased to 2.1%.

The BOJ also held steady, though two board members voted for a 25bps hike, signaling internal pressure to act soon. The BOC delivered a 25bps cut but warned against overreliance on monetary policy to fix structural weaknesses.

Geopolitical developments:

The long-awaited Trump–Xi meeting on the sidelines of APEC yielded a framework to de-escalate trade tensions, though few concrete details emerged. Analysts described market reaction as cautious optimism.

The US government remained shut down, though signs of bipartisan compromise grew stronger late in the week.

💹 Price Action

Equities:

The Nikkei 225, UK 100 and Nasdaq hit fresh highs driven by a weak yen and strong tech earnings and new NVIDIA partnerships respectively.

Commodities:

Gold trended lower throughout the week as easing trade tensions and a more hawkish Fed reduced demand for hedges but did rebound off the lows in an early sign of dip-buying. Oil consolidated after the prior weeks big 2-day jump.

FX:

GBPUSD fell to 1.31 and a 6-month low as markets priced in BOE vs Fed policy. USDCAD declined after the BOC rate cut.

Big Themes

Gold has corrected roughly 10% from record highs above $4,000/oz, pressured by a stronger US dollar and fading rate-cut bets, while global equities extended their bull run from April with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq posting fresh records.

A weaker pound has supported the FTSE 100, lifting exporter earnings. The US dollar has rebounded to multi-month highs against major peers, weighing slightly on commodities and emerging-market currencies.

Meanwhile, crypto assets remain in a prolonged slump after Octobers $19 billion liquidation event, with Bitcoin and Ethereum struggling to regain key resistance levels amid ongoing deleveraging.

Week AheadEarnings Calendar

Uber (Q3 2025) – Monday, 4 Nov:

Uber posted 18% revenue growth to $12.65bn in Q2 and expects Q3 gross bookings of $48.25–$49.75bn and adjusted EBITDA of $2.19–$2.29bn. Shares hit record highs near $100 after a $20bn buyback announcement.

Other key earnings:

Palantir, Marks & Spencer, AMD, Pfizer, Novo Nordisk, McDonalds, Qualcomm, AstraZeneca, ConocoPhillips, Parker-Hannifin, and IAG report through the week.

Economic Calendar

• BoE Rate Decision (6 Nov): No change expected; inflation at 3.8% and core at 3.5% complicate any case for another cut.

• PMIs (3 & 5 Nov): October manufacturing rose to 49.6 and services to 51.1, showing early signs of stabilization.

• ADP Payrolls (5 Nov): Markets watching closely after back-to-back monthly declines.

• ISM Manufacturing (3 Nov): Early insight into Q4 momentum amid shutdown uncertainty.

• Trade Data (7 Nov): Surplus expected to expand; export growth softens to 7.3%.

• RBA Rate Decision (5 Nov): Policy on hold, tone expected to stay cautiously neutral.

Technical Analysis

We look at hundreds of charts each week and present you with three of our favourite setups and signals.

EUR/USDSetup

Range (sideways) market

• Lowest weekly close in 5 months - possible top forming

• Bearish RSI divergence

Commentary

The weekly close below 1.16 is bearish near term and suggests a test of the bottom of the long term range at 1.14.

Strategy

• Sell any rebound towards 1.16 in line with short term downtrend

• Look to go long near 1.14 near bottom of long term range



JPN 225

• Setup

Bull market - breakout to record high

• Price has closed the week above 50,000

• Uptrend line is supporting bull market

• Commentary

Three ‘marizibu’ weekly candles shows a strong bull market- albeit looking very overbought with RSI over 80.

• Strategy

• Buy pullback back to breakout zone around 50K

• Buy next pullback to rising trend line near 47,500

NOTE: Can stay bullish while above the rising trendline



UK 100

• Setup

Bull market - breakout to record high

• Record high

• Approaching big 10K round number

• Commentary

Strong uptrend intact supported by rising trendline. Overdue a larger pullback to 100 DMA or lower.

• Strategy

• Buy dips to 9550 (old high)

• Buy bigger dip to 9400 (trendline)



But - as always - thats just how the team and I are seeing things, what do you think？