Market doubts Fed rate cuts this year. USD rises, gold near $4000, waiting for economic data.

On Monday, due to doubts in the market about the prospect of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates again this year, the US dollar index continued to rise, approaching the 100 mark at one point during trading, and finally closed up 0.15% at 99.85. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield ultimately closed at 4.113%, while the 2-year Treasury yield sensitive to the Federal Reserve policy rate closed at 3.617%. On Monday (November 3rd), spot gold prices fluctuated narrowly around $4000 per ounce. Although the gold price has surged by 53% this year, it has fallen more than 8% from its historical high on October 20th, and the market has entered a typical "high-level breathing" stage. The uncertain outlook of the Federal Reserve's policies, the data vacuum caused by the US government shutdown, and the end of China's gold tax exemption policy are working together to encircle gold prices. In the short term, gold prices still face the risk of further pullback, but the pause in the rise of analysts' gold prices is only a breathing space, not a collapse. Despite OPEC+'s plan to pause production in the first quarter of 2026, the market remains concerned about oversupply of oil and weak factory data in Asia, causing crude oil to fluctuate at high levels. WTI crude oil fluctuated around $61, ultimately closing up 0.26% at $60.82 per barrel; Brent crude oil ultimately closed up 0.27% at $64.65 per barrel.