DBG Markets: Market Report for Nov 11, 2025

Market Reversal Fueled by Shutdown Optimism: Dollar, Gold, and FX in Focus

Global risk assets saw a dramatic reversal on Monday, fueled by significant progress in the U.S. Senate toward ending the record-long 41-day government shutdown. Optimism for a deal to reopen federal agencies and guarantee retroactive pay sent stocks soaring.

Macro Focus: Shutdown Truce & Data Vacuum

The market reacted positively to Sundays Senate procedural vote, which advanced a compromise bill that could end the record-long shutdown this week. The pending resolution of the shutdown removes a major source of systemic uncertainty that had been weighing on corporate investment and consumer confidence.

While the end of the shutdown is bullish for markets, uncertainty remains. Key official economic data, such as Nonfarm Payrolls, are still in question, leaving the Federal Reserve to operate in a “flying blind” mode.

The focus will now shift to how quickly the government can resume services and release the backlog of critical reports.

Policy Outlook and Dollars Base

The U.S. Dollar remains structurally strong despite the recent risk-on sentiment, supported by policy factors and optimism over the potential end of the government shutdown.

The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) was near flat but held its ground around 99.25. This suggests that the dollars strength is now anchored more in policy expectations—reflecting a less-dovish Fed stance than previously anticipated—rather than purely risk-off flows. Risk-on positioning favored equities over FX safe-havens, stabilizing the dollar rather than triggering aggressive selling.

USD Index, H4 Chart

Outlook: The near-term resolution of the U.S. shutdown may provide a short-term bullish driver for the dollar. Beyond that, its direction will likely hinge on the flow of economic data once government operations resume. Key releases could shape market expectations for Fed policy. Any data pointing toward more aggressive Fed rate cuts in December may pressure the dollar lower.

Technically, the U.S. Dollar has found critical support in the 99.00–99.25 zone, reinforcing its near-term bullish structure. Maintaining this range is crucial for validating momentum. A decisive break below 99.00–99.25 could open the door to downside, with upcoming economic data likely serving as the main catalyst.

Dollar Pairs Outlook: GBPUSD & EURUSD

GBPUSD: Bearish Factors Dominate

The British Pound has struggled structurally due to higher inflation and sluggish growth (risk of stagflation) and increased rate cut bets ahead of the BoE meeting.

While the risk-on sentiment provided some relief, the pair remains under pressure. The next major directional move will depend on whether the 1.3200 resistance level may take place, or if the strong Dollar momentum pushes it lower.

GBP/USD, Daily Chart

A previous attempt to break higher failed, which formed a double top, and the earlier breakdown below 1.3200 could suggest a double top bearish reversal was formed and confirmed.

Currently, the price action could see a potential retest of the double top neckline near 1.3200–1.3270. If we see continued pressure below the level, more downside is likely.

Outlook: The UK economic and policy environment remains a bearish factor for the pound; however, GBP/USD moves could also depend on how the US Dollar behaves.

EURUSD: Technicals still on Downside

EUR/USD, H4 Chart

Meanwhile, EUR/USD is showing signs of recovery after its multi-week decline. However, price action suggests the pair may remain under pressure below the earlier 1.1600 breakout.

However, the pair remains highly sensitive to the US Dollar.

The recent rebound indicates recovery potential, but the technical outlook shows that failure to overcome immediate resistance near 1.1550–1.1600 could trigger a deeper downtrend, especially if the Dollar Index resumes its climb toward 100.00.

Gold: Structural Bullish Reaffirmed

On other hand, Gold's nearly 3% surge on Monday ($4,120/oz) was a combination of factors: the Dollar weakness last week, short-covering, and an underlying conviction that the Fed will ultimately have to ease rates due to the economic damage, regardless of the shutdown's end.

XAU/USD, H2 Chart

As we covered in our analysis yesterday, the breakout of 4030 suggests a potential bullish breakout, a bullish continuation on broader trend.

Technically, the near-term resistance could fall at where it is now near 4140, a previous high seen at the end of October. This could act as a short-term resistance that triggers a short-term pullback.

But over its near-term direction, it will depend on whether the dollar resumes its momentum, but still the structural bullish for gold may remain for now, while a technical pullback still poses a buy-the-dip opportunity now.