DBG Markets: Market Report for Nov 19, 2025

Markets Focus on FOMC Minutes and Earnings Tests; Risk-Asset Face Continued Pressures

Global Equities Retreat, Investor Caution Intensifies

Global equity markets continued their decline on Tuesday, reflecting a sharp drop in risk appetite. The U.S. major indices all closed lower, marking the fourth consecutive day of losses, signaling a deepening corrective phase. Asian and European markets also fell, highlighting the spillover of Wall Street weakness and rising global risk aversion.

· Dollar: The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) edged higher to around 99.50, demonstrating strong support amid elevated risk-off sentiment and policy uncertainty.

· Gold: Gold rebounded from the $4,000 level to close near $4,070, benefiting from its safe-haven appeal as risk assets faced selling pressure.

· Cryptocurrencies: Digital assets remained under pressure, maintaining an overall weak stance.

Data Returns and the AI Valuation Test

Market volatility is set to spike as two major events drive sentiment: Federal Reserve policy guidance and the ongoing valuation assessment of tech stocks.

· FOMC Minutes: The primary focus today is the release of the latest FOMC meeting minutes. Investors will scrutinize any details on the December rate decision and guidance on balance sheet policy (QT) for confirmation of the Feds policy intentions.

· Market Expectations: CME FedWatch currently prices the probability of a December rate cut at 46.6%, significantly below earlier expectations.

Yesterday, Fed Governor Barkin echoed Chair Powell‘s view, emphasizing that a December cut is not guaranteed. The Fed’s pushback against easing, coupled with the prospect of higher interest rates, has added notable pressure on risk assets.

On the other hand, Nvidia is scheduled to release its Q3 fiscal 2026 earnings after the U.S. market close. This report is widely viewed as a critical test of the AI sectors valuation. Any guidance below expectations could trigger a renewed wave of tech stock selling.

· Forward Guidance in Focus: While the Q3 headline numbers matter, the market is primarily focused on Nvidias guidance for Q4 and fiscal 2026, as this will determine whether the AI rally still has fundamental support.

· Market Implications: Any disappointment in Nvidias outlook would validate concerns over inflated valuations and likely spark a second, more aggressive wave of selling across the Nasdaq. With the recent correction already underway, the tech sector is positioned for a significant directional move.

Equities: Tech Vulnerability Persists

Global equities remain under broad selling pressure, with the Nasdaq leading declines after recording its largest weekly drop since March. This could signal a potential corrective move or even a near-term bear market phase, particularly if concerns in the tech sector intensify.

UT100, H4 Chart

The near-term trend for Nasdaq 100 shows a potential bearish reversal forming after breaking below the 25,000 level and its recent trend channel. This may indicate a corrective phase or pullback in the broader uptrend.

Further downside is likely unless the index recovers above this key level, which would suggest a continuation of the prior uptrend.

For the S&P 500, the broader outlook remains consistent with our previous analysis. Refer to our market commentary from Tuesday, 18 November 2025, for details.

Cryptocurrencies Lead the Decline

BTCUSD, Daily Chart

Bitcoins breakdown below 100,000 confirms a bear market in the near term.

Immediate support lies around 89,000–90,000, with further downside potential toward 85,000 and even 77,000 if risk-off sentiment persists.

Historically, Bitcoin bear markets tend to last for a period before a sustained bullish reversal occurs, keeping the near-term outlook vulnerable.

ETHUSD, Daily Chart

Meanwhile, Ethereum faces downside support in the 2,800–2,450 range. Trading below the 200-day moving average signals the potential onset of a near-term bear market, with further declines possible if the current risk-off sentiment continues.

Bottom Line: Risk Assets Remain Vulnerable

Overall, under the combined impact of “higher-for-longer” interest rates and concerns over tech sector overvaluation, the market has clearly shifted into a risk-off mode. This continues to weigh on risk assets, and a sustained recovery is unlikely unless Nvidias earnings report delivers a strong positive surprise. Without such a catalyst, we could see a period of corrective moves or even a short-term bear market in equities and high-beta assets.

Meanwhile, the U.S. Dollar is likely to remain in a wait-and-see mode as the market anticipates key updates from the September NFP report tomorrow and the FOMC minutes later (midnight Asian time).

Gold, on the other hand, is expected to maintain a bullish-to-consolidation bias at this stage, as outlined in yesterdays analysis.