Massive week for Silver. Santa rally in stocks?- Week 48| Technical Analysis by Jasper Lawler

Week Ahead 📅 1–7 December, 2025

After a massive rally and its highest weekly close on record, silver is possibly setting up for a long term breakout, maybe as soon as this week.

Markets enter December after a volatile November handover. The dip in US indices has arguably increased the chances of a ‘Santa Rally’ or year-end sentiment might remain dampened by valuation risk and rate cut speculation.

Week in Review

💹 Price Action

• Nasdaq 100 fell ~5% on the week; strong earnings from Nvidia did not offset risk-off pressure tied to AI-valuation concerns.

• November performance divergence saw Europes Stoxx 600 record its 5th consecutive positive month.

• CME Group experienced a brief outage late last week, temporarily disrupting flows in energy, metals, FX, Treasuries, and U.S. equity futures pricing.

• Bitcoin halving commentary weighed on crypto sentiment amid expectations long-term holders may adjust exposure into year-end.

📰 Latest News

• Since July, private-sector hiring has slowed materially, adding only a net +10k jobs after +42k in October, with wage growth flat at 4.5% (job stayers) and 6.7% (job changers).

• Attention swung to December FOMC policy: Fed futures moved from unlikely toward ~83% implied cut probability for the coming meeting.

• UK October CPI cooled to 3.6% (core 3.4%), and retail sales disappointed, keeping distribution pressure elevated around services hiring decisions.

• The RBNZ delivered a 25bp rate cut with hawkish framing, noting an unchanged hold was also discussed, supporting the NZD/USD upside skew.

• Hardline geopolitical framing from Vladimir Putin influenced crude oil markets late last week, narrowing initial optimism tied to Ukraine peace-framework headlines.

Top Events & Data (1–7 December)

• UK Services PMI (Nov) – 3 Dec: flash 50.5 (7-month low). Rising caution ahead of budgets paused hiring and new-work decisions; first contraction in new work since July seen.

• ISM Services (Nov) – 3 Dec: flash 55, the highest since July, though employment slowed; input prices rose fastest since Jan 2023, complicating inflation descent narratives.

FYI Interest-Rate Decisions this Month (Before Holidays)

Interest-Rate Decisions (end-of-year meetings)

• Federal Reserve decision (10 Dec): expected to hold or deliver a close call even if payrolls surprise higher, given previous splits and blackout timing.

• European Central Bank (11 Dec): markets price no easing; steady stance viewed as supportive when inflation tracks target.

• Bank of England (18 Dec): markets price ~90% probability of a 25bp cut; sentiment depends on trust, fiscal clarity, and inflation mix.

• Swiss National Bank (11 Dec): scheduled.

• European Leaders Summit (19 Dec): risk-headline window for Europe.

Corporate Updates This Week

• CrowdStrike, Marvell, Salesforce, Kroger and Balfour Beatty.

Technical Analysis

We look at hundreds of charts each week and present you with three of our favourite setups and strategies.

SilverSetup

Bullish trend - breakout

• Record highest weekly close

• 161.8% Fibonacci extension sits at almost exactly $60 per oz

• Daily chart testing the top of a triangle pattern

• Price has respected rising trendline

Commentary

Silver looks to have completed its pullback from its October peak, setting up a possible breakout to new record highs. Price could pullback again from resistance at $54 or breakout early in the week, meaning a strategy is needed for each scenario.

Strategy

• Buy breakout above $54 per oz

• Buy pullback to demand area from $51-52 per oz



GBP/USD

• Setup

Pullback at the start of new bearish trend

• Bullish engulfing weekly candle pattern

• Follows price hitting 6-month low previous week

• Daily RSI is rebounding from oversold conditions - back over 50

• Main risk is that price returns to range-bound trading

• Commentary

A higher low and higher high on the daily chart is not proof of a bullish trend reversal but does show a larger correction (not just a simple pullback) of the downtrend. Former support at 1.33 is now resistance.

• Strategy

• Look for bearish reversals near 1.33

• Looks for price to break back below 1.32 to confirm doji star bearish reversal pattern.



• USD/CADSetup

Bullish - correction

• Weekly chart is still overall bullish after inverse H&S pattern

• An incomplete double top at 1.41 on daily chart shows larger correction of uptrend

• RSI correcting from overbought conditions - still above 50

• Commentary

The Loonie is struggling at 1.41 and could present opportunities to buy at lower levels on the dip near the demand zone around 1.39.

• Strategy

• Option 2: Sell rebound towards 48,000 supply zone

• Option 1: Wait for bearish setup after the break of uptrend line



But - as always - thats just how the team and I are seeing things, what do you think？