Trump Expected to Announce New Fed Chair Early Next Year

Former President Donald Trump is expected to name his choice for the next Federal Reserve Chair early next year, and mounting signals suggest that Kevin Hassett — Director of the White House National Economic Council — has all but been “internally confirmed.” During a recent Cabinet meeting, Trump said the announcement was imminent, and at another event, he directly hinted that Hassett was a “potential Fed Chair,” calling him “highly respected.” Reporters have noted that Trump told the press he “already knows” whom he will appoint. When asked if the pick was Hassett, Trump responded only with a smile — further reinforcing market conviction that the decision is settled.

Hassett‘s appeal comes down to two critical qualities that align with Trump’s priorities: unwavering loyalty to the White House and strong credibility in the financial markets. With Hassett widely viewed as the frontrunner, investors have begun to price in a more dovish Federal Reserve, increasing expectations for earlier-than-anticipated rate cuts. This shift has fueled a rebound in both U.S. equities and interest-rate markets.

However, this short-term optimism may be masking deeper medium-to-long-term risks. The economic outlook for 2026 suggests U.S. growth momentum will remain resilient, while inflation shows signs of stickiness. The slowdown in core inflation remains uneven and far from decisively anchored. If the Fed pivots to easing before inflation is firmly under control, it could undermine the central banks credibility and potentially trigger a sharp tightening in financial conditions — adding significant volatility to markets.

At the same time, robust consumer spending continues to constrain the Feds room to cut rates. According to data from the National Retail Federation (NRF), U.S. shoppers logged 202.9 million visits during the five-day Thanksgiving-to–Cyber Monday period — far exceeding expectations of 186.9 million and marking the highest level since records began in 2017. While strong consumption supports growth, it also makes cooling inflation more challenging, complicating any potential policy shift.

Overall, Hassett‘s near-certain appointment signals a major shift in the Fed’s policy approach. While markets may benefit in the short term from expectations of looser conditions, the medium-term outlook remains uncertain as policymakers navigate persistent inflation pressures, economic resilience, and credibility risks. The incoming Chair will almost certainly usher in a period of elevated uncertainty and volatility across U.S. financial markets.

Gold Technical Analysis

On the H1 chart, gold faces significant resistance at $4,250, where prices reversed and subsequently slid below $4,200, reaching a low near the structural support zone at $4,158. Although a rebound has emerged, the broader structure has yet to reestablish a bullish trend.

Moving Averages: Still Bearish, Rebound Faces Heavy Overhead Pressure

• The black moving average remains downward-sloping.

• The current rebound is approaching this moving average.

• At this stage, the moving average effectively acts as a short-term resistance band.

MACD: Bearish Momentum Weakening, but No Bullish Confirmation

• Histogram bars are contracting from extremely weak levels → downside momentum is fading.

• However, the histogram has not expanded into positive territory, meaning downside pressure has paused, but upside momentum has yet to form.

Trading Implications

• A breakdown below $4,200 → Bearish continuation, with MACD likely turning lower as well. This would reopen opportunities for short setups.

• A decisive move above the moving average with strong closes → Bullish reversal confirmed, with upside targets at $4,250 or higher.

Key Levels

• Resistance: $4,250/oz

• Support: $4,200/oz, $4,158/oz

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