Delayed NFP Release + Silver's Surge- Week 50| Technical Analysis by Jasper Lawler

Week Ahead📅 Week of December 15-19

Markets enter mid-December shaped by a pivotal Fed cut, renewed volatility in silver, and fading momentum in AI-linked stocks. A surprise QE-style bond-buying programme triggered dollar weakness, lifting precious metals and major FX pairs.

US equities hit fresh highs as investors rotated into value, but underlying leadership weakened. Earnings misses and margin warnings from key tech names have reignited doubts over stretched AI valuations and capex sustainability.

Attention now turns to a dense macro slate: ECB, BOE, and BOJ decisions, alongside US inflation and payrolls. Precious metals are strengthening, tech enthusiasm is cooling, and policy divergence is driving the next market phase.

Key developments

• Fed: Rates cut as expected, but with dissent and cautious guidance. A $40bn short-dated bond-buying programme pressured the dollar.
• AI sector: Oracle sales miss and Broadcom margin warning dented confidence, weighing on the Nasdaq.
• UK: October GDP contracted (–0.1%), pushing sterling lower despite ongoing dollar weakness.
• Canada: BoC held rates with a slightly hawkish tone; USDCAD fell for a third week.

Price Action

• USD weakened for a third straight week following the Fed decision and more QE.
• Gold climbed to a seven-week high, supported by easing expectations.
• Silver hit a fresh record high
• EUR advanced, mostly on USD weakness
• JPY underperformed despite expectations for a BOJ hike, as JGB yields rose.
• Crude oil trended lower after OPEC raised its supply forecast.

Market Themes to Watch

BOE to Cut Rates amid Sluggish Economy

The Bank of England is widely expected to cut rates. Markets will focus on the vote split and guidance for 2026 as softer growth increasingly outweighs inflation risks.

• Unemployment expected to rise to 5.1%
• Inflation seen easing further
• GBPUSD has formed a spinning-top candle, with focus below 1.3440 and toward the 1.3300 area

ECB to Hold, But Watch the Tone

Rates are expected to remain unchanged, but any acknowledgement of persistent inflation could fuel speculation of future tightening. A hawkish read may support further euro strength unless key support is reclaimed.

BOJ Set to Hike

Economists broadly expect a 25bp hike, likely accompanied by hawkish messaging. However, expectations for follow-up hikes remain limited. USDJPY remains compressed in a tight range, increasing the risk of a directional break.

US Data Re-enters the Frame

With delayed releases resuming, traders will closely watch November payrolls and CPI for confirmation of slowing momentum in both growth and labour markets.

Top Events in the Week Ahead

• US Non-Farm Payrolls (Tues)
• US retail sales (Tues)
• UK jobs data (Tue)
• UK CPI (Wed)
• ECB rate decision (Thu)
• BOE rate decision (Thu)
• US CPI (Thu)
• BOJ rate decision (Fri)
• UK retail sales (Fri)

Corporate Updates This Week

Lennar, Micron, General Mills, Accenture, Nike, and Currys.

Technical Analysis

We look at hundreds of charts each week and present you with three of our favourite setups and strategies.

SilverSetup

Bullish - record highs - extended uptrend

• Closed over $60 per oz for first time
• Yearly candle chart shows 161.8% Fibonacci extension targets over $70
• Daily chart has price overbought beyond 20 SMA
• RSI overbought +70

Commentary

Silver was the top performer last week as gold gained but remains below record highs. Price looks overextended but the rally could have further to go in the short term.

Strategy

• Buy 1-2 day pullback (aggressive)
• Buy dip to demand zone beginning at 58.50

NZD/USDSetup

Bullish reversal - potential new uptrend

• Long monthly pin-bar bullish reversal with upside follow-through this month
• Double bottom off 0.56
• Price has broken strongly above 20 & 50 DMA
• Resistance on daily chart at 0.58-0.585
• RSI has reached overbought, signalling new bullish momentum
Commentary

NZD/USD appears to have began a new uptrend but now does not offer a good R:R under resistance. Support sits back at the prior months high at 0.575 and to the broken high at 0.569-0.57.

Strategy
• Bull dip at 0.569-0.57

GBP/JPYSetup

Bullish - overbought - possible bearish correction coming

• The monthly chart is testing key resistance at 208.0.
• Price is very overbought relative to rising trendline connecting major lows
• Short term trendline supporting current steep rise
Commentary

GBP/JPY is in a strong uptrend so any bearish trades should only be taken with caution since there is well-defined support at 205. However, the trend looks overbought on the daily chart so the monthly resistance could hold, at least temporarily.

Strategy
• Sell breakdown from short term trendline
• Buy pullback in at 203-204 support


But - as always - thats just how the team and I are seeing things, what do you think？