DBG Markets: Market Report for Dec 23, 2025

Global Markets Extend Santa Rally Ahead of Key US Data

Global markets continued their strong risk-on sentiment on Tuesday. In the first trading day of the Christmas week, US equities rose amid thin liquidity, reflecting a clear preference for holding positions into the holiday. The Nasdaq 100 gained 0.45%, the S&P 500 added 0.64%, and the Dow Jones rose 0.46%.

The spotlight shifted to Asia, where gold exhibited strong follow-through buying, breaking past previous all-time highs. Prices further extended gains today, reaching around $4,475 per ounce, underscoring golds continued role as a safe-haven and liquidity-driven asset.

While the broader Santa Rally remains the prevailing theme, today marks the final day of significant macroeconomic activity before markets enter a thinly traded, low-liquidity holiday period.

Tuesdays “Triple Threat” Data

Markets face a dense cluster of US releases that could trigger the last major volatility spike of 2025: the final Q3 GDP revision, Durable Goods Orders, and December Consumer Confidence.

· US Q3 GDP (Final Revision) – Forecast: 3.2%–3.8%: Remains the primary focus, reflecting the economys trajectory, particularly in light of recent slowing labor market indicators. A print near expectations would reinforce the “soft-landing” narrative—solid growth alongside cooling inflation—supporting the continuation of the equities Santa Rally into year-end.

· Durable Goods Orders – Key for business investment trends. A significant downside surprise could reignite “growth scare” concerns.

· Consumer Confidence (December) – Forecast: 91.7 (up from 88.7). Signals sentiment trends ahead of the holiday season.

Market Implications

· On-target GDP: Supports risk-on sentiment, likely sustaining equities momentum through the Christmas week.

· Downward Revision: Could spark profit-taking in equities, though a meaningful downside surprise would be needed to trigger broad risk-off moves.

Overall, barring any major surprises, the market is expected to remain relatively stable, driven by the existing Santa Rally momentum and the year-end low-liquidity environment.

Asset Outlook: Navigating the Santa Rally

US Dollar: Bearish Pressure Persists

The US Dollar remains under pressure following last Fridays initial rebound, as markets increasingly price in a more aggressive Fed easing cycle for 2026.

USD Index, H4 Chart

The US Dollar Index is struggling to hold the 98.00 level. With the recent rising wedge pattern broken, the technical outlook signals a continuation of broader bearish momentum.

Outlook: A break below 98.00 opens the path toward retesting support near 97.50, with further downside targets around 97.00–96.80.

EURUSD: Buyers Defend 1.1700

The Euro continues to benefit from broad Dollar weakness. EURUSD remains structurally bullish after finding support at 1.1700.

EURUSD, H4 Chart

Technically, the pair remains in buyers control above 1.1700, eyeing resistance at 1.1800. If the Dollar continues to weaken, a breach of 1.1800 could extend upside toward 1.1860.

GBPUSD: 1.3450 Pivot Broken

Following the Bank of England‘s “hawkish cut,” Sterling has shown resilience but remains sensitive to the US Dollar’s trajectory.

GBPUSD, H4 Chart

The pair trades near 1.3480, with intraday resistance around 1.3500 and support at 1.3350.

Outlook: As long as GBPUSD holds above the 1.3450 pivot, the near-term bias remains neutral-to-bullish heading into the holiday break.

Gold: Bulls Eye the $4,500 Milestone

Gold has been the standout performer of the Santa Rally, driven by falling yield expectations and safe-haven demand.

XAU/USD, Daily Chart

Gold recently shattered previous records, reaching a fresh all-time high of $4,475 per ounce. Former resistance at 4,380–4,400 has now transitioned into key support.

XAU/USD, H4 Chart

With bullish momentum intact, the next psychological milestone is $4,500. Further upside targets, based on Fibonacci extensions, are 4,500 (123.6%), 4,570 (138.2%), and 4,630 (150.0%).

Outlook: The higher high–higher low structure remains intact, keeping the medium-term outlook bullish for gold.

Bottom Line:

Global markets are extending the Santa Rally, supported by continued risk-on sentiment, low liquidity, and dovish expectations for the Fed in early 2026. US equities remain firm, gold has reached a fresh all-time high near $4,475, and the Euro and Sterling continue to benefit from broad Dollar weakness. Key US data today—Q3 GDP revision, Durable Goods Orders, and Consumer Confidence—represent the last potential volatility catalysts before the thin Christmas week trading.

The US Dollar faces continued bearish pressure, with the 98.00 level acting as near-term support, while EURUSD and GBPUSD maintain bullish-to-neutral bias above key pivots. Gold remains in a strong uptrend, eyeing the $4,500 psychological milestone, with further upside possible if momentum persists. Overall, markets are likely to maintain the Santa Rally trajectory, though thin liquidity and event-driven moves could create short-term spikes.