ETO Markets Global Pulse: Gold Up Over 1% as Rate-Cut Bets Recede

Market Review

According to ETO Markets monitoring, on Feb 11 (Wednesday), spot gold surged to an intraday high near USD 5,118/oz before settling up over 1% at around USD 5,083/oz. April gold futures rose 1.3% to USD 5,098.50/oz, keeping prices anchored at elevated levels.

During Asian trading on Feb 12 (Thursday), spot gold edged lower to around USD 5,055/oz, down roughly 0.5%, as price action shifted into short-term consolidation.

Global Headlines

Trump Urges “Lowest Rates”

President Trump said strong employment data justified cutting U.S. interest rates to the lowest level globally, arguing such a move could save at least USD 1 trillion annually in borrowing costs. The remarks renewed public pressure from the White House on monetary policy direction.

U.S. Weighs Second Carrier Deployment to Middle East

U.S. officials indicated the Pentagon is preparing to deploy a second aircraft carrier strike group to the Middle East amid potential contingency planning related to Iran. While no formal order has been issued, preparations are underway, keeping geopolitical risk elevated.

Iran Signals Nuclear Deal Still Possible

Irans foreign minister stated that a fair and balanced agreement on its peaceful nuclear program remains achievable, emphasizing diplomacy as the preferred path while reiterating sovereignty concerns. The comments offered limited easing signals amid ongoing tensions.

U.S. Fiscal Deficit and Debt Outlook Widen

The Congressional Budget Office projects a USD 1.9 trillion federal deficit in fiscal 2026, equivalent to 5.8% of GDP, potentially widening to USD 3.1 trillion by 2036. Publicly held debt is expected to reach 120% of GDP, reinforcing long-term implications for rates and inflation expectations.

ETO Markets Analyst View (Spot Gold)

From a structural perspective, USD 5,040 has emerged as a key pivot level. As long as prices hold above this zone, the broader bias remains constructive, with upside focus on USD 5,110 and USD 5,140. A decisive break below USD 5,040 would raise risks of extended pullback toward USD 5,005 and USD 4,980. RSI reflects mixed momentum, suggesting intensified short-term two-way flows and elevated volatility.

Overall, despite stronger employment data tempering near-term rate-cut expectations, golds medium-term pricing logic remains intact amid fiscal expansion, geopolitical uncertainty, and policy divergence. Near-term consolidation reflects ongoing repricing at elevated levels. Investors are advised to carefully manage trading pace and risk exposure.

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