Gold Reclaims the $5,000 Level After U.S. Supreme Court Tariff Ruling

Market Overview

The U.S. Supreme Courts decision to overturn the Trump-era global tariff framework intensified fiscal concerns and triggered broad cross-asset volatility.

Treasury yields climbed to fresh intraday highs, with long-duration bonds leading the price decline. Following a week of hawkish Federal Reserve meeting minutes, short-dated Treasuries also sold off sharply. The U.S. Dollar Index reversed course, snapping a four-day winning streak and hitting a new daily low, though it still posted its strongest weekly gain in four months.

Precious metals staged a powerful rebound. Gold surged more than 2% intraday, reclaiming the $5,000 level, while silver futures spiked as much as 9%, reversing earlier weekly losses.

In FX markets, the Japanese yen extended its decline for a third consecutive session, finishing the week down 1.5%. The offshore renminbi strengthened past 6.90, marking its third straight weekly gain. Bitcoin briefly climbed back above $68,000, rising more than 2% from its daily low.

Crude oil settled mixed on the day as markets monitored developments in U.S.–Iran negotiations. Heightened geopolitical tensions supported prices, with oil gaining more than 5% for the week—its first weekly advance this month.

Key Themes Ahead1. Safe-Haven Demand Accelerates: Gold and Silver Rally

A risk-off tone strengthened after the U.S. Supreme Court ruled that former President Donald Trumps global tariffs were unlawful.

The Court determined that the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) does not grant the president authority to impose tariffs without Congressional approval. The ruling affects reciprocal tariffs but does not apply to steel, aluminum, or automobile duties.

President Trump described the ruling as “disgraceful” and indicated contingency plans are already in place. The decision did not address whether previously collected tariffs must be refunded.

Economists estimate that more than $175 billion in tariff revenue has already been collected. A full refund could effectively reduce the tariff burden by more than half.

Following the announcement, U.S. equities extended gains to fresh intraday highs, while the dollar and Treasury prices fell to new session lows. Gold and silver accelerated sharply higher amid renewed demand for defensive assets.

2. Is a U.S.–Iran Conflict Brewing？

President Trump confirmed he is considering a “limited preliminary military strike” against Iran to pressure Tehran into accepting U.S. nuclear terms.

According to Chinese state media (CCTV), Trump stated that military action remains under consideration. Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian indicated that a draft agreement with the U.S. could be finalized within three days, emphasizing that Irans peaceful nuclear program has no military solution and must be resolved diplomatically.

An Israeli military spokesperson confirmed that the Israel Defense Forces remain on high alert.

As of Fridays close, crude prices showed limited daily movement but remained supported by geopolitical risk premiums.

Data Watch (GMT+8)

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U.S. Durable Goods Orders (Final MoM, December)

Dallas Fed Manufacturing Business Index (February)

Overnight

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Speech by European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde