Amillex Daily Market Brief | Renewed Conflict Sparks Risk Aversion as Gold and Oil Surge in Tandem

March 2, 2026 — Global financial markets were hit by a sharp shock during the Asian session, as a sudden escalation in Middle East tensions fully ignited risk-off sentiment. Over the weekend, reports of large-scale U.S.–Israeli strikes on Iran — including the deaths of several senior officials, among them Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei — sent shockwaves through markets.

Spot gold opened with a sharp upside gap and surged as much as 1.5% intraday to USD 5,373.49/oz, marking a near one-month high. The rapid spillover of geopolitical risk, combined with a steady recovery in physical gold demand, pushed bullish sentiment close to overdrive.

Asset Performance and Fundamental Overview

1. U.S. Equity Market

Index Performance

• Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI): 48,977.92, down 1.05%. The index fell below the psychological 49,000 level, reflecting capital rotation away from cyclical sectors amid extreme geopolitical risk.

• S&P 500 (SP500): 6,824.50, down 0.60%. Overall market risk appetite weakened.

• Nasdaq 100 (NQ1): 24,777.25, down 0.91%. Growth and technology stocks remain highly sensitive to real-rate expectations and geopolitical uncertainty.

Stock in Focus

• Tesla (TSLA): USD 402.51, down 1.49%. Shares remain under pressure near the key psychological USD 400 level.

2. Foreign Exchange Market

• U.S. Dollar Index (DXY): 97.933, up 0.29%. Safe-haven flows boosted the dollar. Markets are repricing its defensive appeal, while potential energy-driven inflation also supports expectations that the Fed will maintain a restrictive policy stance.

• EUR/USD: 1.18159, up 0.16%. The euro shows resilience at current levels, as markets weigh rising European energy costs against potential central bank responses.

• USD/JPY: 156.004, down 0.06%. Reflects an intense tug-of-war between yield differentials and safe-haven demand.

3. Precious Metals and Commodities

Precious Metals

• Spot Gold (XAUUSD): USD 5,317.31/oz, up 0.74%. Geopolitical risk premiums fully offset the impact of a stronger U.S. dollar.

• Spot Silver (XAGUSD): USD 92.992/oz, down 0.86%. Silver underperformed, highlighting its stronger industrial-metal characteristics and concerns over slowing global growth.

Commodities

• Crude Oil (XTIUSD): USD 71.19/barrel, up 5.62%. Supply disruption risks became the dominant pricing factor, driving an extreme single-day rally.

4. Digital Assets and Macro Developments

• Bitcoin (BTCUSD): USD 66,443, up 1.02%. Found buying support near USD 65,000, showing signs of moving in sync with gold as a digital safe-haven asset.

• Ethereum (ETHUSD): USD 1,964.5, up 1.30%. Digital assets saw a modest rebound amid expectations of fiat liquidity volatility, though their risk-asset nature continues to cap upside momentum.

5. Today focus

• Eurozone: Speech by ECB President Christine Lagarde

• Canada: February Manufacturing PMI

• United States: February ISM Manufacturing PMI

• United States: February ISM Manufacturing Prices Index