Harmovest Capital | Daily Report: U.S. Hiring Slows, Gold Rises

01/04/2026 Market Brief

Key Highlights

• U.S. hiring activity continues to slow

• Risk-aversion sentiment is rising

• Gold maintains a bullish trend

Market Overview

Recent data shows U.S. companies are hiring at the slowest pace in 15 years (excluding the pandemic), signaling continued cooling in the labor market. The hiring rate fell to 3.1%, the lowest level since 2011, while job openings declined from 7.24 million to 6.88 million.

Layoffs increased slightly, and voluntary resignations dropped to the lowest level since 2020, reflecting weakening worker confidence. Ongoing Middle East tensions, rising energy costs, and supply pressures continue to increase economic uncertainty and living costs.

Meanwhile, the Consumer Confidence Index rose slightly in March to 91.8, but future expectations declined as inflation concerns and higher interest rate expectations increased. Consumers remain cautious, with spending expectations weakening in most sectors.

Market Impact

U.S. Dollar | Gold | S&P 500

Slowing economic momentum and rising inflation expectations have strengthened market risk-aversion sentiment, supporting continued demand for safe-haven assets such as gold and silver.

Today's Key Focus

• U.S. ADP Employment Change

• U.S. Retail Sales

• U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI

The market expects the ADP employment data to come in weaker, reinforcing signs of economic slowdown.

Trading Strategy

Bias: Long on Precious Metals

Market Sentiment Overview

Fear and Greed Index

The Fear & Greed Index, a key indicator of market sentiment, reflects whether investors are driven by fear or greed. The latest reading stands at 15 (Extreme Fear), slightly higher than the previous level of 14, indicating that risk-aversion sentiment remains elevated.

The ongoing conflict involving Iran has pushed energy prices significantly higher, raising concerns about persistent inflation and prompting central banks to maintain higher interest rate levels. At the same time, tariff pressures on the U.S. economy have increased demand for safe-haven assets, including gold and silver.

As market risk-aversion sentiment continues to rise, investors may consider positioning for long exposure in gold, silver, and U.S. Treasuries.

Technical Analysis

XAUUSD (Gold)

Gold prices have entered a clear uptrend and have successfully broken above the key resistance level at 4600. Currently, the price is testing the resistance zone around 4724, which also aligns with the dual moving average resistance.**

As the price has reached a resistance area, upward momentum is expected to slow in the near term, with the market likely to enter a consolidation phase. Investors may consider taking advantage of potential pullbacks to establish long positions, with close attention to the 4600 support level.