Harmovest Capital | Daily Report: Is the Dollar Gaining Strength?

Key Highlights

• Donald Trump stated that extending the ceasefire with Iran is “highly unlikely”

• Safe-haven sentiment remains elevated in the market

• The U.S. Dollar Index has started to gain support

Market Review

Trump Says Ceasefire Extension with Iran Is “Highly Unlikely”

• According to Bloomberg, U.S. President Donald Trump said on Monday that he is “highly unlikely” to extend the two-week ceasefire with Iran if no agreement is reached by the end of this week.

• Trump stated in a phone interview that the Strait of Hormuz will remain closed until a final peace agreement is reached.

• “They want me to open it. The Iranians desperately want it open. I will not open it until the agreement is signed,” he said. Oil prices rose after Washington maintained the blockade and the U.S. Navy seized an Iranian-flagged vessel over the weekend.

• “I will not rush into a bad deal. We have plenty of time,” Trump added.

• He noted that the ceasefire agreement announced on April 7 is set to expire on Wednesday evening (U.S. Eastern Time).

• When asked whether military strikes would resume immediately if no agreement is reached, Trump responded:“If there is no agreement, I would certainly expect that.”

• On Monday morning, Trump told PBS News that if the ceasefire with Iran expires,“a lot of bombs will start going off.”

• When asked whether Iranian negotiators would attend new talks scheduled in Islamabad, Trump said:“I don't know. They should be there. We agreed to go there. It has been arranged. We will see if they show up. If they don't, that's fine.”

• Trump told New York Post that U.S. Vice President J. D. Vance will travel to Pakistan for a second round of negotiations with Iranian officials.

• According to The New York Times, citing two U.S. officials, Vance is expected to depart Washington for Pakistan on Tuesday.

• Trump also told The Washington Post that he is willing to meet senior Iranian leaders if progress is made, but he does not believe his personal attendance at the talks is necessary at this stage.

• The U.S. Central Command stated on social media that as of Monday morning, U.S. forces have intercepted 27 vessels entering or leaving Iranian ports.

Affected Financial Instruments

U.S. Dollar | Gold | S&P 500

Canada Inflation Remains Elevated

Consumer prices in Canada rose 0.9% in March, lifting the annual inflation rate from 1.8% to 2.4%, largely driven by a record 21.2% surge in gasoline prices, the biggest increase since 1949.

Core inflation remained relatively moderate, with key measures easing to around 2.2%–2.3%, close to the central banks 2% target, indicating underlying price pressures are stabilizing.

However, inflation data remains uneven, as price increases were concentrated in energy-related sectors, while several categories such as services and household goods declined, pointing to signs of underlying economic softness.

Looking ahead, inflation is expected to remain slightly above 3% next month, supported by base effects and higher fuel prices, though April could mark the peak inflation level for the year if energy prices stabilize.

Affected Financial Instruments

Canadian Dollar | Gold | S&P 500

Summary

Following President Trump's renewed statement that the ceasefire is unlikely to be extended, safe-haven demand has strengthened in the short term, placing downward pressure on risk assets such as equities and cryptocurrencies.

Today's Key Events to Watch

• New Zealand Consumer Price Index (CPI)

• U.S. Retail Sales Data

Today, markets will focus primarily on U.S. retail sales data. Historical trends suggest that the U.S. economy remains resilient, leading markets to expect stronger-than-forecast figures.

Affected Financial Instruments

• U.S. Dollar

• Precious Metals (Gold, Silver, Platinum)

• U.S. Equity Indices

Trading Strategy for Today

Bias: Long on Precious Metals

Market Sentiment Analysis

Fear & Greed Index

The Fear & Greed Index is a key indicator used to measure market sentiment, reflecting whether investors are driven by fear or greed.

The latest reading shows the index at 70 (Risk-On sentiment), compared with the previous level of 36, indicating that safe-haven demand has gradually eased.

Markets are increasingly digesting developments related to the Iran conflict, leading to a cooling of risk aversion. As a result, the U.S. Dollar Index has begun to trend lower, while risk assets such as equities and cryptocurrencies have started to move higher.

Technical Analysis

XAUUSD (Gold)

Following the announcement of a two-week ceasefire between the United States and Iran, safe-haven demand cooled significantly, pushing U.S. 10-year Treasury yields lower and indirectly supporting the upside potential for gold.

From a technical perspective, gold has broken above the 4844 resistance level and is expected to maintain a strong bullish trend in the short term.

Trading Suggestion:

Continue positioning for long opportunities, with key support to watch near the 4800 level.