Semiconductors Slide Again | Gold Surges | Dow Hits Record High | Chinese Equities Retreat

Market Overview

Global markets were driven by three major themes on Thursday.

First, semiconductor stocks extended their selloff for a second consecutive session. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) dropped another 5.44%, bringing its two-day decline to roughly 12%. Among notable movers, Marvell fell 9.84%, Arm Holdings lost 6.58%, and Micron Technology declined 5.49%. Market reports indicated that AI startup Anthropic has launched an in-house AI chip development initiative and is reportedly in discussions with Samsung regarding cooperation on its 2-nanometer manufacturing process.

Second, capital rotation became increasingly evident. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 1.14% to close at 52,900, setting a new record closing high. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 was little changed at 7,483, while the Nasdaq Composite fell 0.80% to 25,833.

Third, safe-haven assets and precious metals rallied sharply. Spot gold surged 2.30% to $4,123 per ounce, rebounding from its lowest level in roughly eight months. Silver climbed 3.04%. The U.S. Dollar Index experienced its largest daily selloff in two weeks, falling as much as 0.87% intraday, while the Japanese yen appreciated 0.9% against the dollar.

In China, equities pulled back from recent highs. The Shanghai Composite Index declined 2.03%, while the ChiNext Index plunged 5.71%, marking its largest single-day loss of the year.

On the macroeconomic front, the U.S. economy added only 57,000 nonfarm payroll jobs in June, approximately half of market expectations. However, the unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to its lowest level in a year. Following the data release, market expectations for a July rate hike eased significantly, with implied odds falling to around 20%.

Tesla reported approximately 480,000 vehicle deliveries in the second quarter, a new all-time high. Nevertheless, the stock came under pressure and at one point dropped as much as 8.2% during the trading session.

Key Themes AheadGlobal June PMI Releases Take Center Stage

June Services PMI and Composite PMI data from China, the United States, the Eurozone, the United Kingdom, and Japan will be released throughout the day. Investors will closely monitor these reports for signs of divergence in economic momentum as higher interest rates and moderating demand continue to weigh on growth prospects.

Particular attention will be paid to new orders and employment components within the services sector, which could provide early indications of economic growth trends for the second half of the year.

Semiconductor Sector Faces a Potential Repricing

Anthropic's move toward proprietary AI chip development, combined with reports of a potential 2nm partnership with Samsung, has added fresh uncertainty to the AI investment narrative. At the same time, semiconductor stocks outside of Nvidia have suffered consecutive declines, prompting investors to reassess the concentration risk embedded in the current AI trade.

If the upcoming earnings season confirms rising memory-chip prices without a corresponding increase in capital expenditure guidance, valuation assumptions across the semiconductor sector could face further pressure.

Events to Watch

• China Caixin Services PMI (June)

• China Caixin Composite PMI (June)

• U.S. ISM Services PMI (June)

• Eurozone Composite PMI Final Reading (June)

• Speech by European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde

• Ongoing market reassessment of AI trade concentration and semiconductor valuations