FXTRADING Economic Data Summary (Asia-Pacific | 07/14)

New Zealand Services Return to Expansion

New Zealands services sector returned to expansion in June, with the BusinessNZ Performance of Services Index (PSI) rising from 48.0 to 50.6, marking its first reading above the 50-point expansion threshold since January. New orders climbed from 48.2 to 53.0, providing the strongest support for the recovery, while the supplier deliveries index rebounded to 51.2, returning to expansion territory.

However, the recovery in the services sector remains fragile. The activity and sales index improved from 45.1 to 49.3, the employment index edged up only slightly from 48.7 to 48.8, and the inventories index increased from 47.8 to 49.9, with all three remaining below the 50-point threshold. FXTRADING believes: The return of the services sector to expansion should strengthen confidence in New Zealands economic recovery. However, with employment and consumer spending improving only gradually, the sustainability of the recovery will depend on whether domestic demand and business confidence continue to strengthen.

Germanys Current Account Remains in Surplus

Germany recorded a current account surplus of €10.4 billion in May. Although this was the lowest level in nearly a year, it remained well above the €5.9 billion surplus recorded in the same month last year. Primary income shifted from a €2.3 billion deficit a year earlier to a €5.7 billion surplus, providing significant support to the overall current account. The goods trade surplus remained solid at €15.4 billion, with exports rising 0.6% to €112.9 billion and imports increasing 1.1% to €97.5 billion, highlighting the continued resilience of Germanys export competitiveness.

On the other hand, the services trade deficit widened from €5.9 billion to €7.2 billion, while the secondary income deficit expanded from €1.6 billion to €3.5 billion, weighing on the overall surplus. During the first five months of the year, Germany‘s cumulative current account surplus reached €88.7 billion, slightly below the €90.0 billion recorded in the same period last year, but still remained at a relatively high level. FXTRADING believes: Germany’s external balance remains fundamentally solid, with goods trade continuing to provide strong support. However, weaker performance in services trade suggests that changes in external demand will remain a key factor influencing Germanys economic outlook.

Türkiyes Retail Sales Accelerate

Türkiyes retail sales increased 13.7% year-on-year in May, accelerating from the revised 11.7% growth recorded in April. Non-food sales excluding automotive fuel rose from 14.8% to 17.5%, while sales of computers, software, telecommunications equipment, and books surged 23.5%. Sales of textiles, clothing, and footwear also increased by 17.6%, indicating that consumer demand remained resilient.

Meanwhile, automotive fuel sales growth accelerated from 2.9% to 3.2%, while food sales increased from 7.8% to 9.1%. Although growth in household appliances, furniture, pharmaceuticals, and online sales moderated, overall consumer spending continued to expand at a solid pace. On a seasonally adjusted basis, retail sales rose 2.4% month-on-month in May, reversing the revised 1.7% decline recorded in April and reflecting continued improvement in domestic demand. FXTRADING believes: The sustained growth in retail sales highlights that consumer spending remains a key pillar of Türkiyes economy. However, given the persistently high inflation environment, whether consumer demand can maintain its current resilience will require further observation.

Norways Manufacturing Sector Returns to Growth

Norways manufacturing output increased 0.7% month-on-month in May, exceeding market expectations of 0.4% and reversing the 0.9% decline recorded in April. Production expanded further in food and beverages, wood processing, and basic chemicals, while textiles and apparel, fabricated metal products, machinery and equipment, as well as machinery repair and installation all returned to growth, contributing to the broader recovery in manufacturing activity.

However, performance across industries remained uneven. Growth slowed in refined petroleum, chemicals, and pharmaceuticals, while gains in basic metals weakened. Shipbuilding, offshore platforms, and furniture manufacturing continued to decline. Overall, manufacturing output increased 2.2% year-on-year in May, a significant improvement from the 0.6% year-on-year decline recorded in April, indicating a continued recovery in industrial activity. FXTRADING believes: Norway‘s manufacturing sector has shown clear signs of recovery, with growth returning across most industries, strengthening the industrial sector’s contribution to the economy.

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