ETO Markets Global Pulse: Gold Breaks $4,000 as Blockade Returns

Market Review

According to ETO Markets monitoring, on July 13 (Monday), spot gold fell sharply for a second consecutive session, closing at USD 4,000.80 per ounce, down nearly 3%. Prices briefly touched USD 3,986.51 per ounce, the lowest level since July 1. US gold futures fell 2.6% to USD 4,005.70.

On July 14 (Tuesday) during early Asian trading, spot gold broke below the USD 4,000 level and traded around USD 3,996 per ounce. The short-term structure remains weak and volatile near recent lows.

Global Headlines

US Restarts Iran Sea Blockade

US Central Command said that, under Trumps instruction, the US military will resume its maritime blockade against Iran at 16:00 ET on July 14. The measures will apply to vessels passing through Iranian ports and coastal areas. During the previous blockade from April 13 to June 18, the US said more than 140 compliant vessels were ordered to change course, while nine “violating vessels” were disabled.

Waller Says CPI Drives Hikes

FED Governor Waller said the FED may need to raise rates in the near term if upcoming data show inflation remains far above the 2% target. He described monetary policy as being at a “crossroads” and said Tuesdays CPI report will be a key reference. Waller warned that the FED should not become complacent if data deteriorate in the coming weeks.

FED Hike Odds Hit 90%

According to CME FEDWatch data, markets price a 58.3% probability that the FED keeps rates unchanged in July, while the chance of a 25bp hike stands at 41.7%. By December, the probability of no change is 10%, the chance of a cumulative 25bp hike is 32.8%, and the probability of at least 50bp in hikes is 57.2%. Total year-end hike odds have risen to 90%.

Trump Frames Conflict As Military

Trump described the current US-Iran confrontation as a “military conflict,” but denied that it would become a long-term war. He said the US has significantly weakened Irans capabilities, though Iran may continue resisting for some time. Trump declined to provide a timeline for when fighting may end and said a near-term agreement is unlikely, though a deal may still be reached eventually.

Trump Threatens Haoshan Nuclear Site

Trump said the US will destroy Irans Haoshan facility and warned that Washington will continue heavy strikes against Iran. Haoshan is located near the Natanz uranium enrichment site and is described as a heavily defended underground facility. Trump said the US is closely monitoring the site and may act quickly if activity is detected.

Burnham Nears UK Prime Ministership

UK Labour MP Andy Burnham has received nominations from 349 of 403 Labour MPs, effectively securing the party leadership. He is expected to become UK Prime Minister on July 20. Under party rules, leadership candidates need at least 81 Labour MP nominations, and no other candidate now appears able to qualify.

ETO Markets Analyst View (Spot Gold)

Spot gold remains below a key turning point, with 4,245 acting as the main resistance level. If prices regain and hold above 4,245, upside potential may reopen, with resistance levels at 4,385 and 4,425.

If gold stays below 4,245, the weak structure remains in place. Support at 4,170 and 4,110 will stay in focus. Overall, gold is now in a low-level consolidation phase after breaking below USD 4,000.

RSI is moving higher, showing early signs of short-term momentum recovery. However, gold has not yet reclaimed 4,245, so the sustainability of any rebound still requires confirmation. Markets are currently pricing renewed Middle East escalation, US CPI data, and rising FED rate-hike expectations. Price volatility may remain elevated.

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