Brent nears $100. Gold breaks above $4,500 as Investors Await PCE Inflation Data Next Week

Key Takeaways

• Gold surged more than 4% during the week to $4,530–$4,555, for a third straight weekly gain.

• The Dollar Index fell to a three-month low near 98.50–98.80, down roughly 1% for the week.

• The 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.33% intraday, its highest level since 2007.

• Treasury‘s surprise move to double long-end debt buybacks triggered gold’s jump and hammered the dollar.

• Equities pulled back from record highs in a broad, volatility-driven correction.

• Oil prices rise as US-Iran tensions kept inflation fears alive due to higher energy prices.

• Gold Breaks Above $4,500

Gold delivered its strongest weekly performance in months, closing in on a third consecutive weekly gain. The prcious metal began the week trading in the mid-$4,300s and traded Friday near $4,530–$4,555 per ounce. Prices jumped after the U.S. Treasury announced it would at least double its long-term debt buyback program. Gold held the bulk of its gains even as Treasury yields partially reversed course on Thursday.

Lower yields reduce the opportunity cost of holding a zero-coupon asset like gold. Layered on top of that was the structural bid gold has enjoyed all year. The central banks bought a record 288 tonnes in the second quarter alone and a dollar that was already on its back foot heading into the announcement.

• The Dollar Index Slides to Three-Month Low

The U.S. Dollar Index mirrored gold's move in reverse, falling for a fourth straight week to its lowest level since May, briefly touching the mid-98.00s on Thursday before stabilizing near 98.70–98.80 into Friday's close, a weekly decline of roughly 1%. The dollar's slide accelerated the moment the Treasury buyback news hit the tape on Wednesday. Softening Fed rate-hike odds compounded the pressure, expectations for a September hike fell from roughly 40% to the low-30s as traders digested cooler retail sales and inflation prints from earlier in the month.

• Stocks Experience a Bond-Driven Correction

Equities spent the week grinding lower. The S&P 500, Dow, and Nasdaq fell in four of five sessions this week. Monday and Tuesday saw broad-based selling as oil spiked on Iran-related supply fears and the 30-year yield tore through two-decade highs. The Nasdaq lost over 1% intraday on Tuesday alone as semiconductor names were hit particularly hard. Wednesday's Treasury buyback announcement offered brief relief, but Thursday erased it.

• Outlook for the Week of August 24–28, 2026

Gold: The path of least resistance remains higher. With gold holding above $4,500 into the weekend and central bank buying providing a structural floor, a push toward the $4,600–$4,700 resistance zone looks achievable if yields stay contained. The key risk is a Treasury-yield snapback. If PCE data or Fed commentary revives hike expectations, expect a sharp but likely shallow pullback toward $4,400–$4,450.

US Dollar Index: Bias stays to the downside. Momentum, softer Fed-hike odds, and the buyback-driven liquidity narrative all argue for a retest of the 98.00–98.50 area, with the three-month low near 98.50 as the first line in the sand. A break below opens the door toward the 97.50 region. The dollar's best chance of a bounce would come from a hawkish surprise in Fed commentary or a re-escalation in the US-Iran conflict.

Equities: The pullback from recent records has room to extend if 30-year yields reassert themselves above 5.3%, particularly in rate-sensitive tech and semiconductors. But a stabilization in yields, helped by the Treasury's buyback support could trigger a relief rally back toward prior highs. The next real catalyst is Nvidia earnings and the run-up to the Fed's Jackson Hole symposium, both of which will likely set the tone into month-end. Until then, expect the S&P 500 to trade a choppy range roughly bounded by 7,550 on the downside and 7,800 on the upside.

• Major Economic Calendar Events for the Upcoming Week