Nvidia Tops $100B as U.S. PCE Heats Up; Gold Holds $4,600, Copper Near Record Highs

Market Overview

Global markets focused on three key developments on Wednesday.

First, Nvidia reported earnings after the closing bell, posting quarterly revenue of $96.2 billion, up 106% year over year, while data center revenue reached $89.0 billion, beating market expectations. The company guided for third-quarter revenue of approximately $108.0 billion at the midpoint, marking the first time its quarterly revenue outlook has exceeded $100 billion. However, its gross margin guidance of 74% came in slightly below expectations. Nvidia shares initially fell about 4% in after-hours trading before reversing course to gain roughly 5%.

Second, U.S. headline PCE inflation accelerated in July, rising 3.7% year over year, above market expectations. Core PCE inflation came in at 3.3% year over year, in line with forecasts, while real personal consumption expenditures were unchanged from the previous month. Following the data, market-implied odds of a September Federal Reserve rate cut fell to around 42%.

Third, U.S. equities ended slightly lower, with the S&P 500 down 0.02%, the Nasdaq Composite off 0.08%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average falling 0.21%. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose about 2 basis points to 4.66%, while the U.S. Dollar Index climbed to 99.1. A stronger dollar and rising Treasury yields weighed on precious metals, sending spot gold down roughly 0.5% to around $4,638 per ounce, though prices remained above the key $4,600 level. Meanwhile, COMEX copper climbed above $6.71, remaining near record highs.

The Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium begins today, with this year's discussions focusing on the implications of financial innovation for payments and monetary policy.

Key Themes to Watch● Fridays Core PCE Report and Jackson Hole Remarks

The U.S. July Core PCE Price Index will be released on Friday. Markets expect the Feds preferred inflation gauge to rise 3.3% year over year and 0.2% month over month.

With headline PCE inflation already showing renewed upward pressure and expectations for a September rate cut being scaled back, the upcoming inflation data, together with remarks from Federal Reserve officials at Jackson Hole, will play a critical role in shaping expectations for the future path of interest rates. This will likely be the most important cross-asset catalyst for markets this week.

● AI Capital Spending After Nvidias Earnings

Nvidias third-quarter revenue guidance exceeding $100 billion for the first time reinforces the view that demand for AI computing infrastructure continues to accelerate. However, slightly weaker-than-expected gross margin guidance also highlights potential pressure on the cost side.

The next key question is whether hyperscalers and major cloud providers can sustain the current pace of capital expenditure, and whether companies across the AI supply chain can convert surging demand into durable earnings growth. These factors will ultimately determine how sustainable the current AI-driven market rally proves to be.

Key Events and Data to Watch

• U.S. July Core PCE Price Index: Consensus forecast of +3.3% YoY and +0.2% MoM

• Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium: Remarks from policymakers on the monetary policy path and interest-rate outlook

• Bank of Korea Rate Decision: Focus on policymakers balancing act between inflation and exchange-rate pressures

• Oil Prices and the Strait of Hormuz Agreement: Iran and Oman reportedly reached an agreement regarding the distribution of revenues associated with the strait

• Chinas July Industrial Profits: Focus on whether policies such as the consumer goods trade-in program are translating into stronger downstream demand