Apple CEO Transition · Oil Prices Surge · Middle East Tensions Escalate · China A-Shares Rebound

Market Overview

Markets focused on three major themes on Tuesday.

First, a leadership transition is underway at one of the world‘s largest technology companies. Apple announced that Tim Cook will step down as CEO, with hardware engineering chief John Ternus formally taking over the role. Cook will become Executive Chairman and continue overseeing the company’s global government relations.

Second, escalating geopolitical risks pushed crude oil prices sharply higher. WTI October futures settled at $85.76 per barrel, up 2.83%, while Brent crude gained 2.71% to close at $90.49, after briefly breaking above $91 intraday. Iran said an oil tanker struck a mine in the Strait of Hormuz and was forced to halt operations, a claim denied by the U.S. military.

Third, interest-rate expectations remain a dominant market driver. Markets are now pricing in roughly a 60% probability of a September rate hike, while Barclays revised its outlook and now expects two rate increases this year.

Risk appetite, meanwhile, showed signs of improvement. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index gained 3.3% in August, marking its strongest August performance since 2004. China A-shares closed higher on Monday, with the Shanghai Composite ending at 3,986.30. Bitcoin climbed back above $79,000, while the Chinese yuan strengthened toward a three-year high.

Key Themes to Watch● Middle East Tensions vs. Rising Oil Prices

Iran said an oil tanker struck a mine in the Strait of Hormuz and suspended operations, while a U.S. military base in Jordan also came under attack. Brent crude briefly surged above $91 per barrel intraday.

The Strait of Hormuz is one of the worlds most critical chokepoints for seaborne crude oil shipments, meaning even relatively limited disruptions can significantly increase the geopolitical risk premium embedded in oil prices.

At the same time, Iran has continued to signal its willingness to return to a ceasefire memorandum. The key question going forward is whether tensions begin to ease or escalate further, and whether expectations for potential production increases can outweigh the geopolitical risk premium.

● Fed Rate-Hike Outlook and Tonight‘s U.S. Data

Warsh’s hawkish stance has pushed market pricing for a September rate hike toward 60%, while Barclays has revised its forecast to two rate hikes before year-end.

Tonights U.S. August ISM Manufacturing PMI and July JOLTS job openings report will serve as important indicators for the policy outlook.

If the data continue to demonstrate economic resilience, expectations for a tighter monetary policy path could gain further support. Conversely, signs of weakening labor-market conditions or economic activity could reignite uncertainty over the pace and timing of future rate hikes.

Key Events to Watch

• U.S. August ISM Manufacturing PMI and July JOLTS Job Openings

• China August Caixin Manufacturing PMI

• G20 Technology Ministers‘ Meeting, with Elon Musk, Jensen Huang, and Sam Altman in attendance

• SHEIN’s Hong Kong stock market debut at an offer price of HK$48.56; Baidus dual-primary listing takes effect

• John Ternus formally assumes the role of Apple CEO