KVB Market Analysis | 16 August: USD/JPY Forecast: Short-Term Bearish Trend Amid Dollar Consolidation
This year's arbitrage gains have been erased, with 65%-75% of these positions closed. The dollar's reaction has been as expected but slightly disappointing, with a significant 100 basis point rise in U.S. short-term interest rates impacting it. JPMorgan has reduced its dollar forecasts, now predicting USD/JPY at $146 in Q4 2024 and $144 in Q2 2025, down from $147. Despite a weakening job market, other economic data remains strong.
The U.S. dollar index returned to the 103 mark; gold once plunged nearly $40 from its intraday high!
The monthly rate of retail sales in the United States in July was 1%, far exceeding expectations; the number of initial claims last week was slightly lower than expected, falling to the lowest level since July; traders cut their expectations of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve, and interest rate futures priced that the Federal Reserve would reduce the rate cut to 93 basis points this year. The probability of a 50 basis point rate cut in September fell to 27%. The data broke the expectation of a
FBS Increases Leverage on U.S. Indices to 1:500
FBS is excited to announce a significant update in trading conditions for our clients: starting from August 5th, 2024, the leverage on major U.S. indices, including US30, US100, and US500, is increased from 1:200 to 1:500.
【MACRO Insight】Tonight We Welcome Two "Data Bombs" Again, Will the Federal Reserve's Interest Rate Cut Expectations Be Reassessed?
the latest release of CPI data in the United States has led to increased expectations in the market that the Federal Reserve will cut rates by 25 basis points at the September meeting, while expectations for a 50 basis point rate cut have weakened. Market analysts estimate that the specific rate cut by the Federal Reserve will be determined by the August employment data to be announced, and Federal Reserve Chairman Powell may pave the way for a rate cut at the Jackson Hole symposium. Although th
Wall Street Rally on Soft CPI
The most anticipated economic indicator of the week, the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI), was released yesterday, coming in at 2.9%, below the 3% threshold and in line with the Producer Price Index (PPI) data from the previous day. This further sign of easing inflationary pressure in the U.S. has heightened expectations that the Federal Reserve may implement its first rate cut in September.
Global Markets Watch: Economic Signals, Leadership Changes, and Market Movements Across Asia, Europe, and the US
Today's global market update highlights key economic developments, including concerns over the US labor market, Japan's economic rebound, and China's property market stabilization. Leadership transitions in Japan and Thailand add political uncertainty, while market reactions to major companies like Nike and tech advancements in AI showcase shifting dynamics. International diplomacy and geopolitical tensions remain critical as global financial landscapes continue to evolve.
US CPI fell back below 3% after three years; gold surged and then fell!
The annual rate of the overall CPI in the United States in July was 2.9%, the first time it has returned to the "2-digit" since March 2021, slightly lower than the expected 3%; the monthly rate rebounded from -0.1% to 0.2% as expected. At the same time, the year-on-year growth rate of the core CPI in July fell to 3.2%, and the month-on-month growth rate rebounded from 0.1% to 0.2% as expected. After the data was released, traders lowered their expectations of a 50 basis point rate cut by the Fed
KVB Market Analysis | 15 August: Gold Prices Drop Sharply Following U.S. CPI Report and Fed Rate Cut Expectations
Spot XAU/USD dropped nearly $18, closing below $2,450, after the latest U.S. CPI report reduced hopes for a significant Fed rate cut. The CPI rose 0.2% in July, with a notable increase in rent, particularly "owner's equivalent rent," which accelerated to 0.36%, contributing to the market's disappointment.
Today's Financial Forecast
Market Review | August 15, 2024
Insights and Analysis for Today's Markets
Market Review | August 15, 2024
【MACRO Alert】OPEC+ Production Increase and Global Demand Uncertainty - Shortage and Surplus
OPEC+'s production decisions, adjustments in the U.S. refining industry, and global economic uncertainties are jointly shaping the balance of supply and demand in the oil market. Market participants need to closely monitor these dynamics to make wise investment and operational decisions. Analysts expect that if demand growth does not accelerate, OPEC+ may have to reconsider its production increase plan. At the same time, the operational adjustments of U.S. refiners and the development of the glo
The increase in the US Producer Price Index has fallen The US dollar fell significantly on Tuesday, and gold bulls have higher targets
On Tuesday (August 13th), the US dollar index plunged after PPI data boosted expectations of a Fed rate cut, ultimately closing down 0.491% at 102.62.
Global Financial Trends and Strategic Shifts
Japan prepares for a new prime minister as Kishida decides not to seek re-election. The US DOJ considers breaking up Google's monopoly, while financial markets signal rising recession risks. Meanwhile, Ukraine's strategic military actions in Russia intensify geopolitical tensions, and Norway's sovereign wealth fund adjusts its major holdings.
Dollar Eases on Soft PPI Reading
Wall Street rallied on the soft PPI reading in the last session and the sentiment is shared in the Asian equity markets on Wednesday.
Investment Opportunities Today
Market Review | August 14, 2024
Investment News for Today's Markets
Market Review | August 14, 2024
Latest Market News
Market Review | August 14, 2024
Market Buzz: What's Happening Today?
Market Review | August 14, 2024
KVB Market Analysis | 14 August: USD/JPY Stabilizes Amid Inflation Data; Technical Indicators Suggest Potential Correction
The yen weakened for the second consecutive day, while the U.S. dollar softened as markets awaited U.S. inflation data. The July U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) rose less than expected, indicating continued easing inflation and leading to dollar weakness. Despite recent volatility caused by the yen's sharp rise, the dollar's drop to $146.98 against the yen suggests the market may have stabilized.
US PPI cooled more than expected; expectations of a Fed rate cut received another boost!
The U.S. PPI rose 2.2% year-on-year in July, lower than expected and a sharp drop from the previous value of 2.7%. Since then, traders have increased their bets on the Fed to ease policy. The decline in the U.S. PPI data is bound to affect the timing of the introduction of interest rate cuts, which is bearish for the U.S. economy and the U.S. dollar in the short term, but bullish for the U.S. dollar in the medium term.
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