United States
2020-04-14 16:31
Technical indexEuro, DAX May Fall Ahead of IMF World Outlook
EURO OUTLOOK, DAX INDEX, IMF WORD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK, IMF GLOBAL FINANCIAL STABILITY REPORT – TALKING POINTS
Euro, DAX index could face selling pressure if IMF outlook spooks European markets
Coronavirus pandemic threatening to undermine regional financial, economic stability
DAX index has experienced a recovery but remains down over 20 percent year-to-date
ASIA-PACIFIC RECAP
US equity futures aimed higher along with Asia-Pacific stocks in what appeared to be a “risk-on” tilt in investors’ mood. This was also reflected in currency markets where the anti-risk US Dollar and Japanese Yen fell while their growth-oriented counterparts – the Australian and New Zealand Dollars – strengthened. This also followed better-than-expected Chinese trade data.
EURO, DAX MAY FALL ON IMF WEO AND GFSR
The Euro and DAX may fall if the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) World Economic Outlook (WEO) and Global Financial Stability Report (GFSR) reports inspire a selloff in the already-battered currency and index. While Eurozone finance ministers were able to reach an agreement on stimulus, unresolved political rifts may soon haunt the region at a time when it faces a crisis worse than what it had endured in 2008.
Year-to-date, the Euro has fallen almost three percent and is trading at a multi-year low with the German DAX equity index down over 20 percent. The coronavirus pandemic has exposed underlying issues in the Eurozone both financially and economically that are now requiring unprecedented efforts on the part of governments and the European Central Bank (ECB) to address.
The IMF’s assessment – particularly as it relates to financial stability – could inspire a selloff in the Euro and growth-oriented assets in the region if the institution’s outlook undermines confidence in a smooth recovery. Concern about the cross-continental so-called leveraged loan market has stirred investors’ angst in recent months with policymakers warning of another possible regional debt crisis.
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